Latin Analysis: Cuba’s Future Amid Raul Castro’s Resignation
Earlier this month, Raul Castro, longtime first secretary of Cuba’s communist party and brother of revolutionary Fidel Castro, announced that he would be officially retiring from the position. First secretary of the communist party is the most powerful position in the country, and so Castro’s retirement symbolizes the first time in 60 years that a Castro will not be governing the island since the 1959 revolution. The next head of the party will be appointed to current president Miguel Diaz-Canel.
The longtime U.S. economic embargo against Cuba has kept the county’s economy poor and stagnant, but the pandemic has deeply worsened the economy. Cuba’s economy shrunk by 11% this past year, making the economy comparable to what it was in the 1990’s when the Soviet Union fell. Castro had announced in 2016 that he would be retiring in 2021 when the country’s eighth congress convenes. Yet, as he keeps to his word and leaves during such a dire public health crisis, the prospect of finally opening the country’s domestic politics and economy has never been greater. Don’t get it wrong, by no means is Cuba going to change its one party rule, nor is the Castro family entirely out of the picture either. However, it is unlikely that one of these relatives will take power in the future. This change in rule can only be good for the country’s political stability, as the people have been demanding for higher inclusion in the government and the party for quite some time, especially with women and Black Cubans.
Due to this demand in leadership change, Castro won’t be the only revolutionary-era politician to be leaving office soon. Diversifying the party is a top priority now, especially in regards to allowing the younger generation to have positions of political importance, such as in the 17 member politburo. Just as Fidel Castro governed till his death, and Raul’s retirement at age 89, the rest of Cuba’s political leadership has remained the same since the revolutionary era as well. These aging politicians have not been able to spur economic growth, mainly because they have not been willing to push for any meaningful reform. After taking over for his brother, Raul Castro did lead in making some economic reforms, such as allowing some small businesses. Politically, he also helped reestablish diplomatic relations with the U.S. during the Obama administration, and he allowed Diaz-Canel to become president in 2018. But while Raul made some reforms that Fidel didn’t allow during his rule, significant change against revolutionary ideals was never his intent.
The older generation was able to rely on their participation in the revolution to hold onto power for so long. Now, as the younger generation takes over they no longer rely on revolutionary legitimacy, and so they have to push for reform and prove that they can improve the economy. Diaz-Canel will be leading the country through these economic reforms, already starting by pushing for a dual currency system, and allowing legality for home-run businesses. Great change however is most likely not going to happen any time soon. For one, while Castro is officially retiring, his input will still be taken on big decisions from behind closed doors. It is also debatable on whether or not the party and government will be able to respond to the demands for higher inclusion. Diaz-Canel is perhaps not looking to make grand changes either. “Continuity” was the official slogan of the eighth congress session, signifying that upholding the Castro vision for the country is perhaps the greatest priority. It was this reason why Diaz-Canel was appointed as president by Castro in 2018. He rides the same wave as Raul when it comes to certain economic reform, while also being a stickler to revolutionary party ideals.
The Biden administration in the U.S. also makes Cuba’s economic prospects seem brighter. The Obama administration had made a historical effort to lift certain sanctions off the country and allow travel and the importation of Cuban rum and cigars. These efforts were short lived however, as the Trump administration reinstated the full embargo. Joe Biden has stated that he plans to go back to the Obama era legislation, but it might take a while as these plans are facing some serious pushback from congress. Biden also has to reverse the last-minute statute that the Trump administration slapped on the country declaring it a state sponsor of terrorism. All Biden can do at the moment is lift the limit on remittances and allow travel in the future once the pandemic is more in check.
Politically though, there is much for the Biden administration to consider with drafting an agenda with Cuba. It is still a repressive authoritarian regime, and the fact that it supports the other authoritarian regimes in Latin America such as Venezuela and Nicaragua is a complication with Biden’s “Democracy First” aspirations.
Cuba is a regime that everyone thought would fail immediately. The intent of the embargo was to choke the economy to the brink of collapse in hopes of returning the country to a capitalist economy and destroying its alignment with the Soviet Union. That never happened. Somehow, even when the USSR collapsed, even when thousands of Cubans left the country, institutions remained unscathed and working. There is no point in thinking any longer that the regime could somehow fall in the near future, not even with the pandemic raging. Working with the country toward reform seems to be the only option there is in ever reaching the possibility of democratic change.
