Latin Analysis: Uruguay, Yamandú Orsi, and The Return of the Left
Guillermo Legaria / Stringer
On November 24, Uruguayans headed to the polls to vote in the second-round runoff vote of Uruguay’s recent presidential election. Ex-history teacher and mayor of Canelones Yamandú Orsi, from the center-left Frente Amplio (Broad Front) coalition, won with 49.8 percent of the ballots cast, compared to 45.9 percent for current chief of cabinet Álvaro Delgado from the right-leaning Partido Nacional (National Party). Uruguayans opted for Orsi’s vision of a ‘modern left’ inspired by the political career of famous “rebel-turned-president” José ‘Pepe’ Mujica, who served as president between 2010-2015. Many seem drawn to Orsi’s moderate and open style, with this shift to the left potentially signifying a shift in Uruguay’s domestic politics, as well as foreign relations.
Results of Presidential Runoff
The Frente Amplio (FA) coalition -founded in 1971 in response to increasing authoritarian leadership in Uruguay- were last in power between 2005-2020. These administrations are remembered for being “one of the most stable, fruitful and serene experiences” of the so-called ‘Pink Tide’ that swept over Latin America during that period. Poverty reduced to around 8 per cent, extreme poverty was eliminated, and income inequality cut to levels more in line with European averages. They also introduced many social reforms; an integrated healthcare system, attempts to combat racial and gender biases, as well as the legalization of gay marriage and recreational cannabis in 2013.
President-elect Orsi, son of a vineyard farmer and a seamstress, had his passion for politics shaped by his childhood, growing up in the shadow of dictatorship. Widely considered Pepe Mujica’s successor, Orsi does not just enjoy support from leftist activists. Public perceptions of him representing a generational shift in leftist politics due to his commitment to “balancing business needs and social welfare” have paid dividends in reaching voters in the middle. This is crucial in a country like Uruguay to capture the attention of undecided voters, who tend to be centrists.
Thus, Orsi’s presidential campaign was centered on this “renewal of the left”. Environmentally conscious policies and social welfare were an important part of his campaign, but these promises were tempered by a commitment to protecting market interests. In this regard, many argue that Orsi’s version of a Frente Amplio government is not as much of a status quo shake-up as expected. However, in this political system characterized by low levels of political polarization, this is likely to have worked in Orsi’s favor. Nevertheless, it is likely that his position on issues such as poverty and crime played a significant role in his success, given that these two problems are currently at the forefront of public consciousness.
Due to changing routes of drug flows across the continent, Uruguay has witnessed increased activity of transnational drug trafficking groups and domestic cartels, having devastating consequences on rates of violent crime. According to government data, 383 murders were recorded in 2022, constituting “a 25.2% increase on 2021”. The government of current president Luis Lacalle Pou blamed this rise in violent crimes on turf wars between rival drug gangs.
Orsi and his opponent Delgado had similar ideas of how to deal with this increased insecurity; both candidates vowed to improve law enforcement, surveillance, rehabilitation services for offenders, as well as create a justice and human rights ministry. However, they had very different approaches; Delgado’s party focused more on deterrent and retribution while Orsi favored a “holistic, community-based approach to crime prevention that seeks to address the social factors of criminal involvement”. Given the immediate threat that this increase in violent crime poses to the public, it will be key to Orsi’s success that he deal with this, alongside criminal prosecutor Carlos Negro, the newly announced Minister of the Interior.
The economy is another key concern for voters, and something that will be a priority for Orsi. With the second highest GDP per capita in Latin America in 2024, and 60 per cent of its population categorized as middle class, Uruguay is a South American economic powerhouse. However, recent economic growth has been slow, with many people criticizing Lacalle Pou’s administration for undoing a lot of the progress made under the previous Frente Amplio governments. Compared to its neighbors, Uruguay’s post-pandemic recovery was poor, as a result of governmental policies which included “a constrictive fiscal rule that led to less increased spending and reduced fiscal support”. These had profound economic and social impacts, with poverty increasing by 38 per cent of pre-pandemic levels during the first four months of lockdown. Children are disproportionately affected by poverty in Uruguay, with one in five young people living in poverty in 2023 (nearly double the national rate). Income inequality also worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, with higher income groups becoming more prosperous while “the poorest 50 percent saw their real income fall by 16 percent”. The cost of living is also very high. The capital Montevideo – where around half of the total population reside – was ranked as the most expensive place to live in South America in June 2024.
Persistent and prolonged droughts caused by the ‘La Niña’ phenomenon since 2018 have also greatly impacted both water scarcity and the economy, especially agriculture. This has been a huge blow for Uruguay’s finances; extreme weather conditions have contributed greatly to the sharp decline in GDP growth in 2023, with agricultural yields reducing by around 27.4 per cent. The previous governments prioritization of “fiscal constraint and conservative labor market and pension reforms over reducing poverty and other social welfare concerns” has greatly impacted quality of life and poverty in Uruguay. Unfortunately for Orsi’s opponent Delgado, some voters saw him as the continuity candidate, who would bring about more of the same. There is great hope that Orsi’s economic plan to rely on “tax incentives to attract investment, cutting red tape and the selective use of industrial policy to support agriculture […] high tech sectors and labor-intensive manufacturing” will stimulate the economic growth needed to reduce child poverty and extend the welfare state. All eyes will be on the new FA government to see if the incumbent president delivers on guaranteeing “no one is left behind economically, socially, or politically”.
Internationally, it is expected that Orsi’s government will strengthen ties with leftist leaders in Latin America, like Brazilian president Lula, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro. Many also wonder if Orsi will distance Uruguay from their Argentinian neighbors, given the ideological differences between the new FA government and Javier Milei’s administration. Lacalle Pou succeeded in keeping relations cordial with Argentina, but the return of the left in Uruguay may change the nature of dealings between Montevideo and Buenos Aires. This swing to the left in Uruguay is a sharp contrast to what happened last year with the election of libertarian, right-leaning Milei. However, a certain degree of continuity is expected in regard to international relations, with many people expecting Orsi to maintain the strong links with China expanded under Lacalle Pou’s administration, given the importance of Chinese markets to Uruguay’s economic policies. Nevertheless, the incumbent president is thought to be skeptical of bilateral trade agreements beyond Mercosur, so is expected to be conservative in his approach.
Despite Orsi’s victory, there are certain roadblocks that may limit his success. The legislative branch of Uruguay’s government is made up of two chambers: the Chamber of Senators and the Chamber of Representatives. Unfortunately, Frente Amplio only enjoys a majority in the Chamber of Senators, meaning that it could prove difficult to pass proposals through both houses. However, given the FA’s commitment to open dialogue and Uruguay’s reputation for being a “beacon of democratic stability”, this is possibly not as much of an issue as it could be in a more ideological polarized nation. The same may be said of accusations that Orsi lacks ideas and is unwilling to shake up the status quo. But, given that Uruguay’s political system appears to be characterized by respect and moderation, perhaps an open political bridge-builder like Orsi is exactly what the country needs. Problems may only arise for the Frente Amplio coalition regarding these criticisms when the next election comes around and current president Lacalle Pou is allowed to seek re-election, given that he has a high personal approval rating.
Yamandú Orsi is set to become the next president of Uruguay, with the transference of power expected to be smooth and cordial. The return of the Frente Amplio coalition to power is bound to mean changes in direction for the country. Yet, compared to other countries with more divided and antagonist politics, this is not likely to signify huge shifts in the political makeup of Uruguay. However, if Orsi achieves the goals that he set during the campaign, Pepe Mujica’s successor could very well escape from the shadow of his mentor, becoming a political icon in his own right.
