Latin Analysis: Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO’s Puppet or Foreign Policy Progressive?

Future Publishing

Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo made history as Mexico's first female and Jewish president, securing a landslide victory in the June elections with "the highest vote percentage in Mexico’s democratic history." Since her inauguration on October 1, Sheinbaum has faced the daunting challenge of combatting cartel fueled violent crime, gender-based violence, opposition to the political reforms of her predecessor, as well as navigating the pervasive international political context. 

Gracias a todas y todos por los abrazos, la alegría de esta mañana, por este Zócalo lleno. El pueblo de México es grandioso y generoso. No les voy a defraudar. Amor con amor se paga. pic.twitter.com/NaayzwEEjc

— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) October 2, 2024

In many ways, Sheinbaum and her “continuity with change” platform has picked up from where her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) left off. She has maintained strong support of the military and an “anti-pluralistic rhetoric”, as well as proceeding with certain controversial judicial reforms brought in before her election. However, unlike AMLO, Sheinbaum is keen to overhaul Mexico’s environmental policy and engage in international climate forums. Regarding foreign policy, it seems that there will also be certain changes during the next few years. This may be motivated by the leader’s more flexible and pragmatic nature, but also developments on and outside Mexico’s borders.

North America

Cordial bonds between Mexico and the USA soured near the end of AMLO’s tenure, with the ex-President ‘pausing’ diplomatic relations with the United States and Canada. This was in response to US and Canadian concerns over AMLO’s proposed judicial reforms that involved politicizing the judiciary and consolidate the executive power of the president, which López Obrador perceived as interference and a violation of Mexican sovereignty. This ‘pause’ did not impact continued trade between the North American states but was a clear escalation of tension.

The US “has to learn to respect the sovereignty of Mexico,” says Mexican Pres AMLO.

Mexico paused relations with the US and Canada after their officials criticized AMLO’s proposal for judicial reform as undemocratic. The reform would elect the Supreme Court by popular vote. pic.twitter.com/njPRx0p8to

— BreakThrough News (@BTnewsroom) August 28, 2024

Donald Trump’s has vowed that his first action after inauguration will be the implementation of a 25 per cent tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports, supposedly to pressure these states into dealing with migration and drug flows into the United States. However, data shows that in 2023, most people convicted of trafficking fentanyl into the United States were American citizens. Sheinbaum has promised that her administration would hit back with tariffs on US goods, but that this plan would do nothing to stop migration flows and only harm common businesses.  Despite Trump’s isolationist plans, the Mexican president seems keen to preserve stable bilateral relations with the United States, vowing that their “strong relationship” will be protected.

These potential tariffs have also complicated relations between Mexico and Canada; certain figures  in Justin Trudeau’s administration favor focusing on bilateral trade with the United States,  essentially pushing Mexico out of the Northern American free trade agreement USMCA. Prime Minister Trudeau met with Trump to get him to reconsider the tariffs on Canada, citing that less than 1 per cent of illegal migration comes from Canada, while nearly all fentanyl enters from Mexico. This has complicated exchanges between Mexico City and Ottawa. Hopefully, a new leader in Canada will allow for a fresh start for the relationship between these two countries.

Latin America

Dubbed as a peleonero – a hot-headed or aggressive person- in his dealings with Latin America, AMLO led Mexico into tense relations with various countries in the region. Diplomatic ties with Ecuador broke in 2024 after the raid of Mexico’s embassy to extract ex-vice president Jorge Blas. Relations with Peru collapsed over AMLO’s criticism of ex-President Castillo’s removal, and Mexico’s refusal to recognize Jeanine Áñez as Bolivia’s president strained ties until Luis Arce’s election. AMLO faced backlash for alleged meddling in Colombia’s elections and openly criticized Argentina’s President Javier Milei, causing further tension.

Despite these conflicts, AMLO prioritized strengthening Latin American regional agreements. Sheinbaum plans to continue this focus, advocating for USMCA expansion to South America and supporting CELAC, aiming for deeper Latin American integration alongside strong North American ties.

G20

Due to AMLO’s approach to international relations being defined by the idea that “the best foreign policy is a good domestic policy”, the ex-president was often absent from international summits.  Thus, as the first Mexican president to attend the conference in six years, many believe that Sheinbaum has returned Mexico to the “front line of international politics”. It is possible that this policy shift regarding international forums is not so much motivated by a change in perspective on foreign policy, but rather a shift in the government’s climate strategy.  Unlike her predecessor - who oversaw the investment of billions of dollars into gas and oil, dismantled climate policies and failed to implement emissions targets- climate scientist Sheinbaum is committed to fighting the climate emergency. Alongside her proposal to allocate one per cent of military spending to reforestation efforts, she has promised to promote renewable energy alternatives, reach 45 per cent clean energy by 2030, and limit crude oil production to 1.8 million barrels a day. Aside from climate policy, Sheinbaum has also committed to gender equality, sustainable development and digitalization efforts within the G20, as well as supporting Brazil’s Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty. Although this shift in Mexico’s foreign policy may have more to do with a change in opinion regarding globalized issues rather than a renewed faith in foreign relations, Sheinbaum is clearly leading Mexico in a different direction on the world stage.

América Latina unida. Nos encontramos con nuestros amigos los presidentes de Brasil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva; Chile, Gabriel Boric Font, y Colombia, Gustavo Petro Urrego en la Cumbre de Líderes del G20. pic.twitter.com/Kl6vChJhQT

— Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (@Claudiashein) November 18, 2024

Europe

Sheinbaum’s commitment to fighting climate change and reaching global targets is also likely to aid her in improving relations with the EU. The development of the EU-Mexico Global Agreement has been stalled due to political setbacks; the energy chapter was a key obstacle, as well as EU member states condemnation of Mexico for “allegedly violating the freedom of the press and the rights of journalists” in March 2022. There is hope that Sheinbaum’s administration will embark on stronger relations with Europe, especially now that her “commitment to a green transition will open up new avenues of dialogue” and potentially mean there are fewer sticking points when discussing the Global Agreement. The EU seem keen for this to be the case, with former EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell announcing how the European bloc was hoping to strengthen their relationship with Mexico and improve cooperation in the wake of Sheinbaum’s electoral victory.  

Ha sido un honor representar a la UE en la toma de posesión de Claudia Sheinbaum @Claudiashein primera presidenta en la historia de México

La UE quiere fortalecer su asociación estratégica con México y trabajar con el nuevo gobierno para impulsar diálogo, acuerdos y cooperación pic.twitter.com/Gbn276kdrL

— Josep Borrell Fontelles (@JosepBorrellF) October 2, 2024

China

An aspect of Mexico’s foreign policy that may be limited rather than developed under Sheinbaum is its relationship with China. López Obrador strengthened Sino-Mexican ties during his time in power, often boasting about his administration’s “very good” relationship with their Chinese counterparts. In the context of the development of the US-China trade war, his government assured that Mexico did not want to get involved in a trade war with China, despite Donald Trump’s promises to put an 100 per cent tariff on cars manufactured by Chinese-funded companies in Mexico. However, it seems unlikely that Sheinbaum’s government will continue in this same vein, especially not now that they are faced with the certainty of a Trump government in the United States. Despite Sheinbaum's G20 meeting with Xi Jinping, her recent moves have been pragmatic, prioritizing U.S. cooperation on migration and trade over stronger ties with China, given Mexico's reliance on the U.S. as a key economic partner.

Mexico's Trading Partners 2022 (% of Mexican exports received)

Data source: https://santandertrade.com/en/portal/analyse-markets/mexico/foreign-trade-in-figures#:~:text=Mexico%20is%20heavily%20dependent%20on,Japan%20(0.9%25%20each).

Despite some seeing her as a mere puppet of the old administration, Sheinbaum appears ready to carve out her own path regarding foreign policy, which will be necessary in this ever-changing and increasingly volatile international context.