Latin Analysis: Is It Too Late For Evo Morales in Bolivia?
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Coined as the most famous Bolivian ever, Evo Morales was the first indigenous president of Bolivia. He oversaw a complete social and economic overhaul, bringing relative prosperity to one of the poorest and most unequal countries in Latin America. Many felt that the ‘Evo’ era had ended once Morales fled Bolivia in November 2019 in the wake of electoral fraud during his fourth presidential re-election. Nevertheless, Morales always intended to retake his position, returning to his homeland in November 2020.
But the path to restoring himself to the presidency has not been a simple one; a power struggle between Morales and current president Luis Arce has caused splits within their party. with Morales accusing his ex-finance minister Arce of plotting against him. Among this political turmoil and the Constitutional Court barring the ex-president from seeking re-election, an arrest warrant has been put out for Morales, after the emergence of accusations of statutory rape and human trafficking a fifteen-year-old girl. In the wake of this, Evo Morales’ dream to regain the presidency has potentially become untenable, even if Morales slams this judicial process as “a dark plan to eliminate me politically and physically” by his competitors.
Born to an Aymara family in an isolated community on the Bolivian Altiplano (high plain), Morales was a key figure within coca unions before the presidency, campaigning against attempts within the U.S. War on Drugs to eradicate coca leaves. Then, he helped lead the Movement Towards Socialism party (MAS) party to victory in the 2005 elections with 53.7 per cent of the popular vote. The election of the first indigenous president in Bolivia was a huge development for the country, and the thirty-eight recognized indigenous communities within it.
The country has long been characterized by a perception of “two Bolivias”, thanks to its history of indigenous oppression during colonization, and the ruling power of white-mestizo elites. Indigenous communities were not recognized as fully enfranchised citizens until 1952, and continued to lack meaningful political representation afterwards, with indigenous parties consistently failure to make electoral gains. Accounting for around 41 per cent of the population in 2012, these communities were largely silenced until Evo Morales came to power.
Morales made Bolivia a ‘plurinational nation’ to recognize the diversity within Bolivian society, “elevating indigenous rights around issues like collective land titling, prior consultation on development projects, and intercultural education.” Additionally, national language status was awarded to Aymara, Quechua, Guaraní, as well as thirty-three other indigenous languages within the new constitution in 2009, making them the official languages of the state (alongside Spanish). Although some may argue that moves such as this were purely symbolic, it greatly contributed to affording greater respect and value to historically ignored ways of life.
There were also various material benefits for indigenous groups under Morales’ administration, such as greater access to electricity, sanitation and water. Poverty rates were also slashed; poverty reduced by 42 percent and extreme poverty by 60 per cent between 2006-2019. This spelled good news for indigenous groups particularly, with these communities more likely to live in destitution; accounting for over 40 per cent of the population but around 75 per cent of “multidimensionally poor people”.
This was facilitated by the relative economic prosperity that Morales brought to Bolivia. Thanks to nationalization projects within key industries and increased social spending, a near miracle was performed on Bolivia’s struggling economy. For example, the nationalization of the hydrocarbons sector allowed his administration “to engage in effective redistribution and macroeconomic policies that benefited the poorest segments of society”. Unlike their socialist counterparts in Venezuela, this left-leaning economic project ushered in relative stability and impressive growth in Bolivia, and perceived as a great success. Between 2004-2017, GDP grew around 4.8 per cent a year, with the World Bank reclassifying Bolivia as a “lower-middle income” country from a “lower-income” one. Minimum wage increased threefold, and unemployment reduced from 7.7 per cent to 4.4. per cent by 2008. The increased revenues provided by the stimulated hydrocarbons industry – which had “risen by almost 20 percentage points of GDP” between 2004-2009- improved the government’s spending power. Thus, social transfer programs were established and expanded, such as the Juancito Pinto program supporting school-aged children and the Renta Dignidad for the elderly.
Public investment Spending (% of GDP)
Despite this, Morales’ legacy has been marred by what many perceived as his iron fist over the presidency, and highly personalized rule. He made multiple constitutional changes to facilitate his re-election, despite originally setting a two-term limit for presidents in the 2009 constitution. In 2016, a referendum proposing that Morales stay in office indefinity was voted down by the population, but the decision was reversed after Morales brought the case to the Supreme Court. The court ruled that prohibiting him from running again “would violate Morales’ human rights.”. The authoritarian nature of his administration was confirmed by the 2019 election campaign, characterized by irregularities and suspicious events. A report by OAS highlighted “intentional manipulation” and “serious irregularities”, triggering widespread public outrage over what many perceived as an affront to democracy by Morales. The military asked him to step down, and the president fled the country.
There was a significant fallout from this, with street violence spiraling out of control as both pro and anti-Morales groups took to the streets. In the wake of such instability and volatility, opposition representative Jeanine Añez became interim president. However, social unrest worsened during her time in power, with Añez issuing a decree “granting the military overly broad discretion to use force against protestors”. The very same day this was implemented, massacres occurred in Sacaba and Senkata, perpetrated by the security forces. Añez is now serving a prison sentence for coordinating a coup against Morales, and Evo’s former protégé and new leader of the MAS Luis Arce became president in October 2020.
When Morales returned from exile in 2020, many of his supporters hoped he would lead Bolivia once more. However, the path to regaining the position he once held both within government and the MAS has not been simple. Current president Luis Arce has refused to be a “puppet president”, distanced himself from the ex-leader, and committed to party renewal. Unable to wrestle back control, Morales has attempted to undermine the current administration and reposition himself as the only viable option for leader in the 2025 election. He accused the Arce administration of orchestrating an assassination attempt against him in October, undertook a hunger strike, while his supporters have carried out highway blockades and protests.
Despite these actions demonstrating the ideological power that Morales continues to wield in Bolivia, there have been severe criticisms of the disruptions. According to government estimates, twenty-one days of highway blockades have cost around $2.1 billion, prevented the flow of services and goods, greatly impacted small businesses and agricultural workers, and led to around seventy people being injured. Many commentators seem confused by Morales numerous attempts to consolidate himself as the next MAS candidate for the 2025 election, given that the Constitutional Court has already ruled on the issue, essentially banning Evo Morales from seeking the presidency again. However, as seen during his last term in office, Morales does not seem to see the rulings of legal bodies as a real obstacle to fulfilling his political ambitions.
The situation for Evo Morales has now become more complicated, and more than just a power struggle between him and Luis Arce. These trafficking and statutory rape accusations, as well as Morales’ arrest warrant, has created a clear obstacle for Morales’ journey to the presidency. There is much debate over the veracity of these claims, with pro-Morales supporters maintaining that these legal proceedings are nothing more than a ploy by Arce. Evo himself has referred to these recent events as a “brutal judicial war” by his successor. Arce’s dwindling popularity among Bolivians, and the poor economic record of his administration further fuel these accusations. According to a survey of voting intentions by Panterra in November 2024, Evo Morales is first choice in terms of voter preference to regain the presidency in August 2025. Despite many commentators arguing that the relative downturn under Arce is a consequence of Morales policies, his ‘return to the past’ campaign pitch is seemingly resonating with voters, despite the current warrant out for his arrest.
Over the last twenty years, Evo Morales has transformed Bolivia, be it for better or worse. Many yearn for a return to the Evo years and the associated economic prosperity and better quality of life. However, it does seem more impossible than ever that Morales return to the presidency in Bolivia, despite his relatively high approval rating compared to sitting president and Morales’ nemesis, Luis Arce. No matter how hard Morales, his supporters and defense team try, accusations such as those being put against the ex-president can not be ignored. Holing himself up in the coca-growing region of Chapare, is not a viable way to launch his 2025 election campaign, a campaign that the Constitutional Court has already ruled against. Works of graffiti have appeared around La Paz against Morales’ actions, calling him as a “rapist” and asking, “would you vote for a pedophile?”. Many argue that the best thing that Morales could do for Bolivia is face up to the accusations against him and give up on his dream of being president once again. It seems Morales does not just need a political transformation, but a miracle.
