Latin Analysis: How did Nicolás Maduro Retake Power in Venezuela?
YURI CORTEZ
Despite a crumbling economy, a mass exodus of citizens and both domestic and international condemnation of the current government, Nicolás Maduro was inaugurated once again as President of Venezuela in January 2025, embarking on his third six-year term. Given the consolidation of the opposition, as well as positive polling for Maduro’s election opponent Edmundo González -despite being relatively unknown to the Venezuelan populace- many people may be confused as to how this has come to pass. In his inauguration speech, Maduro stated that “[n]o one in this world can impose a president in Venezuela”, but some saw this as blatant irony. Nicolás Maduro was retaking his presidential office in Caracas at all costs, no matter what his citizens or the international community had to say about the matter.
Why has there been so much controversy surrounding Maduro’s re-election?
Nicolás Maduro has been Venezuelan president since 2013 when he ascended to the presidency as the chosen successor of Hugo Chávez, leader of the country since 1999. The Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has been in power for decades. However, in recent years there has been an increasing appetite for a change in government. Venezuela’s harsh decline over the last few decades has coincided with Chávez and Maduro’s rule; under Maduro’s presidency alone, Venezuela’s economy “has contracted by more than 75 percent overall”, poverty levels have reached around 90 percent and inflation spiked to around 190 percent in 2023. The leadership has also become increasingly authoritarian, a process which began under Chávez. Presidential term limits were scaped, pand ress and personal freedoms were attacked, paving the way for Maduro to construct his very own dictatorship. Thus, it is potentially unsurprising that around 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country in recent years.
Therefore, many saw an end to Maduro’s grip on power as key to improving life in Venezuela. This was demonstrated through the results of opinion polls in the run-up to the election. In May 2024, 81.4 per cent of respondents believed that the July election was the “final opportunity for a change in the country”, with 59.6 per cent of survey participants wanting opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez to win the election between July 5-13, compared to only 12.5 per cent for Maduro.
How did Venezuelans rate the performance of Nicólas Maduro pre-election?
Thus, there was great surprise among Venezuelans and international onlookers when Venezuela’s electoral authority CNE – controlled by Maduro loyalists- declared that the sitting president had won the election with 52 percent of the vote, compared to only 43 percent for González. Speculation peaked when the electoral authority refused to release individual vote tallies from the 30,000 polling booths, while the opposition claimed to have proof of electoral fraud. The opposition had been preparing for months for this eventually, managing to collect more than 83 percent of voting tallies from the election. These demonstrated that Maduro had only gained 30 percent of the vote, with González achieving a landslide victory with 67 percent.
“From the start, we knew we needed not just to win but to prove that we won” - Anonymous opposition activist, The Guardian (2024)
However, despite the evidence to the contrary, Venezuela’s Supreme Court –also controlled by figures loyal to Maduro- upheld his claim of electoral victory. State security forces and pro-government armed groups ruthlessly suppressed subsequent civil discontent, while an arrest warrant was issued against Edmundo González, forcing Maduro’s opponent to flee the country. Despite popular opposition leader María Corina Machado (who was the opposition’s original election candidate before being disqualified by the electoral court) opting to stay in Venezuela, the control wielded over important institutions by Maduro’s government paved the way for him to retake control in January.
International reaction to Maduro’s re-election:
The international community has been split over its reaction to recent events in Venezuela. Maduro’s key support lies with allies in China and Russia, with both superpowers having provided significant economic and military support. Given the importance of the country for China’s strategic ambitions in Latin America, it is not surprising that the coalition of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea (CRANK) has supported Maduro’s re-election and attempted to weaken the consequences of sanctions implemented by other powers against Venezuela. High-ranking officials from China and Russia attended Maduro’s inauguration ceremony.
In contrast, Venezuela does not enjoy widespread support from its fellow Latin American states. Only Cuba and Nicaragua have maintained diplomatic links with Caracas, with the leaders of these two countries being the only heads of state at the inauguration. A group of nine Latin American states demanded an independent investigation into election results the day after the election, made up of Argentina, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. Additionally, Panama completely severed all diplomatic relations with Venezuela on this day. Then, the Panamanian government offered both political asylum to Maduro and his family and a meeting of regional powers to end the brewing political crisis. Both options were refused by Maduro. Chile and El Salvador called for transparency, with El Salvador’s president Nayib Bukele vowing to not resume diplomatic relations with Caracas until free and fair elections were held. It appears that the issue of Venezuela has managed to transcend ideological differences between certain Latin American states, while previous allies of the Maduro regime like Brazil and Colombia have distanced themselves from Venezuela. Colombia, home to over a third of the 7.7 million Venezuelans that have fled the country in the last few years, have refused to recognize the election results or Maduro as a legitimate leader.
The United States has always been a harsh critic of Venezuela, with U.S. sanctions having been imposed on the petrostate since 2005. However, in response to the election, new sanctions and visa restrictions were implemented in September 2024, “targeting sixteen Maduro-affiliated individuals from the National Electoral Council, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, and the National Assembly for impeding the electoral process and obstructing the release of the election results”. Then, on the day of Maduro’s inauguration, the U.S., U.K and European Union declared “a coordinated round of new sanctions […] on more than 20 officials” high up in Maduro’s regime. Additionally, the Biden administration increased the reward for the arrest of Maduro and his Interior Minister to $25 million, placed a bounty of $15 million on the Venezuelan Defense Minister, and extended a special permission regarding Venezuelan migrants in the U.S., which allows 600,000 of them to remain in the country for another eighteen months (given the continued humanitarian crisis in Venezuela). EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas highlighted how “Maduro lacks the legitimacy of a democratically elected president” and not respected the will of the people. Serbia- a candidate for EU membership- was the only European country apart from Russia and Belarus to attend Maduro’s inauguration.
Although Maduro has managed to return to the presidential office, the greatest challenge has only really begun. His attempt to regain a semblance of legitimacy by holding the elections has failed, and his administration is being propped up by his iron grip over institutional processes within Venezuela. However, the opposition are not going to take this lying down. Edmundo González may soon attempt to return from exile, buoyed by widespread international support and recognition of him as legitimate leader of Venezuela. If this comes to pass, Venezuela might find itself once again with two presidents, and only time will tell how long Maduro will be able to cling onto power.
