Latin Analysis: Nayib Bukele, the World’s Coolest Dictator?
Alex Peña / Stringer
El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, the so-called “world’s coolest dictator”, has made a name for himself both within his country and beyond, and is hailed as one of the leading right-wing populist figures of the twenty-first century. But who is this man who refers to himself as the ‘CEO’ of El Salvador, and how has he achieved such levels of popularity?
Before ascending to the presidency, businessman Bukele took on various mayoral roles, in which he was applauded for his progressive politics and transparent leadership. He launched his first presidential bid in 2019 as the candidate for the Grand Alliance for National Unity- a party perceived as a political outsider- on a platform of anti-corruption that exploited widespread public discontent with political elites. He improved on his electoral success in 2024, with his Nuevas Ideas – New Ideas- party reported to have won re-election with 83.14 per cent of the vote (after 70.25 per cent of votes were counted).
Most Popular Leaders in Latin America (Approval rating %)
Most of El Salvador’s population hold their president in very high esteem, arguably as a result of his success in reducing violent crime in the country. In 2015, this central American state was named “the murder capital of the world”, with around 103.0 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2015, a daily rate of 18.24. This was fueled by gang violence perpetuated by two warring gangs - MS-13 and Barrio 18 - who had formed in exile in the US and returned to El Salvador in the 1990s after the civil war. Bukele has overseen a transformation in security in El Salvador, with 2024 recorded as by far the safest year in fifty years, with homicide rates per 100,000 inhabitants totaling just 1.89 last year. 89 per cent of El Salvadorians felt safe walking around at night in 2023 compared to just 28 per cent in 2016, making it the eighth safest country in the world that year. This dramatic improvement in security has given Bukele carte blanche to carry out his own mandate with widespread public support.
Daily Homicide Rate In El Salvador
Bukele’s strategy for security was two-fold. Firstly, he began secret negotiations with criminal organizations, which involved the government offering leaders “less-restrictive prison conditions, reduced sentences, visits to civilian hospitals- often to communicate with fellow gang members under the guise of receiving fake medical treatment- and a promise to not extradite them to the United States.” These conditions were provided on the basis that gangs lowered homicide rates.
Additionally, in response to a peak in gang violence in March 2022 in which 92 people were killed in a three-day period, Bukele declared a regimen de excepción – or state of emergency- for a month. This measure, which involved suspending constitutional rights and loosening rules around the security forces making arrests, has been extended for almost three years. Under these conditions, a mass incarceration project has been carried out, which has turned El Salvador into “the most incarcerated country in the world”. Around 1.6 per cent of the population are in prison, four times that of the United States. Between March 2022-2023, around 70,000 people were arrested, meaning around 1 in every 100 people was being held in the newly constructed mega prison. This was all part of Bukele’s Plan Control Territorial- Territorial Control Plan- which was “instrumental in removing gang members and other criminal elements from the streets, leading to a significant reduction in crime.” This has been reinforced by a ruling within the legislature in March 2023, which implemented harsh sentences for gang crimes, reduced the age of criminal responsibility, and a ‘gag rule’ for journalists.
There is some doubt over the veracity of claims that the murder rate has been decreased by this policy. Reports indicate that gangs continued their killings despite ongoing negotiations with the government. Meanwhile, the government has reportedly begun excluding victims buried in unmarked graves, as well as those killed during clashes with security forces, from national homicide statistics. This dramatically reduced official murder rates, without making any tangible difference to safety. However, this crackdown did temporarily inhibit gangs, providing a welcome reprieve to communities previously plagued by violence. Hence, public approval of these policies are so high; “about 9 out of 10 Salvadorans approve of the government’s anti-crime strategy.”
Additionally, Bukele also received widespread praise for his COVID-19 pandemic response, with his government responding quickly to accelerating global infection rates and implementing a strict and oppressive lockdown enforced by the police and army early on. Despite thousands of people being arrested by security forces for allegedly violating the stay-at-home order and concerns about President Bukele’s tendency toward anti-democratic tactics, his COVID-19 response is generally viewed positively. El Salvador recorded the lowest COVID-19 infection rate and death toll in Central America, reinforcing the effectiveness of his measures. Around 90 per cent of the population approved of Bukele’s handling of the pandemic back in 2020, likely due to the government introducing various social welfare policies and support for lower-income households.
Bukele’s popularity seems impossible to shake, even in the wake of serious accusations being waged against his administration. Human rights organizations remain concerned that the ongoing state of emergency serves little purpose other than enabling President Bukele to further weaken democratic institutions. The attorney general has been removed, Supreme Court justices have been replaced by figures loyal to the regime, while the incarceration project either “includes sentences of up to 45 years for gang members and allows 12-year-olds to be imprisoned for 10 years” or takes place on social media, with Bukele using platforms like twitter to threaten judges and discuss sentencing. A joint report by Human Rights Watch and Cristosal found that violations of basic rights were widespread and frequent, abuses have been incentivized, while many high-ranking officials have introduced arrest quotas.
Another domestic test for Bukele during his second term will be his economic record. Despite making waves by adopting bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador in June 2021 with the intention of expanding the public’s access to financial services, which brought increased foreign investment and economic development to the country, Bukele’s current economic record leaves significant room for improvement. The government is being forced to roll back its cryptocurrency policy- which is reported to have triggered “more costs than benefits”- as the result of the terms of a deal reached with the IMF to secure a $1.4 billion loan for El Salvador. However, Bukele seems resistant to complying with this condition. To maintain his position, he will have to deal with worsening poverty rates, rising prices, food insecurity, low production and the rapidly increasing public debt, even if he maintains that he has brought economic prosperity.
It remains to be seen if Nayib Bukele will be able to maintain his history of high approval ratings both inside El Salvador and beyond its borders. It seems that he has a long way to go before public opinion turns on him, even if his own citizens are being incarcerated at alarming rates, and civil liberties are being stripped.
