Latin Analysis: Ecuador’s Next Leader
Just eighteen months after the last presidential snap election that lifted the son of Ecuador’s richest man- Daniel Noboa- to the presidency, Ecuadorians have returned to the polls yet again to have their say about who will lead the country. Incumbent president Noboa came out top in the February vote, securing 44.31 per cent of the vote, while main opposition candidate Luisa González came second with 43.83 per cent. Given that neither candidate won more than 50 per cent of the vote, or at least 40 per cent “with a margin of at least 10 percentage points over the next closest candidate”, a second round of voting will be held on April 13, in line with Ecuador’s constitution. In this runoff election, conservative Noboa will go head-to-head with leftist González to win the presidency for the next four years. The outcome of this result is unsure, with recent polls suggesting González is currently the favorite to win the presidency. However, whoever wins this election will have to face up to several significant challenges currently plaguing Ecuador; some may say that whoever reigns victorious on April 13 is inheriting a poisoned chalice.
No one understands the current difficulties facing the government better than the sitting president, Daniel Noboa. During his fourteen months in office- Noboa was elected in 2023 to serve the rest of previous president Guillermo Lasso’s four-year term and tackle escalating crime rates after his predecessor resigned after just two years in office. Although Noboa has not been in power for a long time, his presidency has been characterized by turbulence and unrest. His 2025 election campaign is largely based on his current government’s record of fighting crime and standing firm against criminal gangs.
Noboa’s main competitor, Luisa González, is also no stranger to Ecuadorian political life. She was the runner-up in the 2023 snap election race, and has the backing of former leftist president Rafael Correa, a close confidante of González. With her 'Revive Ecuador' campaign, González hopes to win over Ecuadorian voters, pledging to tackle the drug trade with the same vigor as Noboa. Buoyed by her party’s strongest performance in over a decade during the February vote, she remains confident in her chances and even declared victory following the runoff results. Her electoral good fortune thus far may have something to do with the fact that- in her own words- “Daniel Noboa represents fear, we represent hope, the change to transform this country”.
In contrast, Team Noboa did not look as positively at the first-round results, seeing Noboa’s performance as a disappointment given that “[b]efore the vote, most polls (and financial markets) had predicted a more decisive victory for him” with a flawed exit poll even suggesting Noboa would win a majority and avoid a runoff. Additionally, despite initial claims to the contrary, Noboa’s party ended up as the second-largest party during this vote, pipped to the post by González’s RC party. Following the reality of the first-round results, Noboa suggested that there were irregularities during the vote, but these claims were quickly refuted.
2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election Results | Round 1
Whatever happens in the second round, the next president of Ecuador has a huge task ahead, picking up the pieces in a country that has descended into almost uncontrollable violence and disarray over the past five years, transitioning from a relatively safe country in Latin America to a narco-state. Ecuador has become a key export point for the global cocaine trade between Colombia and Europe. This has been accompanied by a wave of organized crime and increasing violence within the country. Ecuador’s homicide rate- which was 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2019- reached 45 deaths per 100,000 in 2023, “making Ecuador the deadliest country in the Americas’ mainland, only surpassed by Jamaica”. Criminal gangs have become more and more powerful over recent years as a result of accelerating cocaine smuggling, and this has clearly had devastating consequences for the population, with children being recruited into criminal groups and women at a higher risk of sexual violence.
Homicide rate in Ecuador 2018-2024 (No of Homicides per 100,000)
This security crisis appeared to reach boiling point in January 2024, after the leader of Ecuador’s most notorious gang- Adolfo “Fito” Macias – who was suspected of assassinating the August 2023 presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio, escaped from prison. Fito’s escape led to prison mutinies. For example, on January 9th, 2024, 139 prison officers were being held hostage in five prisons. Additionally, a state-owned television studio was overrun with armed and hooded men during a live broadcast for TC Television in Guayaquil. In the fifteen minutes before transmission ended, the public could see staff members being forced to lie on the floor by the gunmen, with the shouts and screams from workers being heard through television sets across the country. In the wake of these events as well as car bomb attacks, President Daniel Noboa declared a state of emergency. He announced that the country was now facing an “armed conflict”, responding to this new threat level by suspending many constitutional rights and deploying the armed forces to restore law and order both on the streets and inside prisons. Although murder rates have slightly decreased since Noboa took power in 2023, his government have thus far failed to calm the acute security crisis in Ecuador. Not only that, but his administration has also been accused of various human rights abuses, while the judicial system continues to be plagued by corruption.
This climate of fear cultivated by violent exchanges between criminal gangs and security forces has contributed to a worsening displacement crisis. Many Ecuadorians have been forced to leave their homes in the wake of the escalating violence, with the UN Refugee Agency reporting that 12,128 Ecuadorians crossed the infamously dangerous Darién Gap between January and May 2024, a jungle which separates Colombia and Panamá. Although the numbers of people fleeing Ecuador via this route has decreased since 2023, “Ecuadorians continue to be the second-largest nationality crossing the Darién, behind only the 109,985 Venezuelans who crossed the jungle” in the same period in 2024.
Another issue that continues to significantly impact on public life in Ecuador- and which will require the immediate attention of the next president- is the topic of national blackouts. These nationwide power cuts are the result of a severe energy crisis in Ecuador. Relying heavily on hydroelectric sources to power the country, Ecuador has suffered greatly due to severe droughts. Caused by the ‘El Niño’ weather phenomenon, these extended periods of drought led to water rationing in Colombia, as well as the country stopping its exports of energy to Ecuador to be able to fulfil Colombian need. This lack of hydroelectric power and imported energy culminated in a nationwide blackout in June 2024, which left seventeen million people without power, affecting hospitals, public transport systems, and homes. Noboa blamed this event on ‘saboteurs’, but according to Public Infrastructure Minister Roberto Luque, this blackout was caused by “maintenance and transmission issues”. The government have been forced to implement nationwide blackouts to ration energy, but this has come with consequences. Thus, given the worsening volatility of weather patterns and global warming, the next leader of Ecuador must look closely at improving energy supply, so that these blackouts do not become a recurrent problem.
Whoever comes out on top in the next round of the Ecuadorian presidential election has a lot of work to do to pull the country back from the brink and protect the population from violent crime. If this situation is left unchecked for much longer, people will continue to flee in their droves, and there may not be the right people left to rebuild what has been destroyed by many years of sustained conflict between these criminal gangs and the state who is trying to crush them.
