Latin Analysis: the ‘Almost’ Trade War Between Colombia and the United States
loops7/Poligrafistka
Mere days after Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January, the United States found itself on the brink of a trade war with Colombia, their historic ally and close trading partner.
Determined to accelerate efforts to combat illegal immigration, Trump issued a series of executive orders following his inauguration to put his deportation plans in motion. As a result of this, two military planes full of illegal Colombian migrants was scheduled to fly to the Andean nation. However, this plan was stalled, with Colombian President Gustavo Petro refusing to agree. Why was this the case? Although Colombia has accepted deportation flights from the United States in the past, they were usually transferred back to their home country on civilian flights rather than military planes. Additionally, accounts from passengers onboard revealed that they were subject to cruel treatment, with many being restrained on the flights. The Colombian president took to social media to lambast the US administration, writing that “[a] migrant is not a criminal and must be treated with dignity.” His administration made it clear that they would not accept the return of undocumented migrants until conditions were improved.
Trump’s government did not take kindly to this, quickly threatening a 25% tariff on key Colombian exports like coffee, which would increase to 50% the following week. The U.S. also warned of potential visa restrictions for those with any link to the government. Initially, Petro’s administration did not waver, promising to implement a 25% retaliatory tariff on US goods and the use of the Colombian presidential plane to transport the migrants back. Petro added that there was a significant number of United States citizens living illegally in Colombia, but that unlike the United States, his government would never subject them to such unfair treatment.
However, Petro quickly backed down, avoiding a full-blown trade war with their crucial trade partner. In a statement released by Trump’s administration, it explained how “[t]he [g]overnment of Colombia has agreed to all of President Trump’s terms, including the unrestricted acceptance of all illegal aliens from Colombia returned from the United States, including on U.S. military aircraft, without limitation or delay”. Tariffs and sanction threats were paused, but the US made it clear that they would be implemented if Colombia did not honor the agreement. The White House perceived this perceived backtrack by Petro as their victory over their Colombian counterparts, while Colombia’s Foreign Minister marketed it as their government overcoming an “impasse” with the United States.
Many have been left wondering what motivated this perceived U-turn by Petro, especially after his vocal condemnation of Trump’s actions on social media. However, given the nature of the relationship between these two nations, the consequences of turning on the US were potentially too costly for Colombia to bear. The United States is Colombia’s largest trading partner with “U.S. goods and services trade with Colombia totalled an estimated $53.5 billion in 2022”. According to Colombia’s statistics agency, the United States “accounted for little over 29% of Colombia’s exports in the first 11 months of 2024”, made up of primarily billions of dollars’ worth of oil, coal and coffee. Given that Colombia’s economy has dipped after its post-pandemic recovery- with GDP plummeting to just 0.6% in 2023 compared to 7.3% in 2022- it is understandable that that the government are hesitant to embark on a trade war with their most powerful trade partner.
Colombia GDP Growth 2013-2023 (annual %)
Over the last century, Colombia and the U.S. have enjoyed relatively cordial relations, with exchanges between the two nations focused on security, economic prosperity and fighting transnational crime like narcotrafficking. For example, President Clinton’s Plan Colombia, as well as President Bush’s Andean Regional Initiative attempted to support Colombia in times of heightened paramilitary violence, while combatting the growth of the drug trade. Although this relationship has been complicated by U.S. intervention, geopolitical tensions and the War on Drugs, links between Bogotá and Washington have strengthened significantly since 2016, when the Colombian government signed a peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to end over fifty years of conflict. The US government has invested heavily in efforts to implement the terms of the ceasefire. They have provided over $1.5 billion dollars since 2017, making them “by far the largest contribution of any international partner”, and agreed to become the first international power to sign the Ethnic Chapter of the treaty (which ensures protection and inequality for the Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities who have been disproportionately affected by the conflict). Additionally, the Biden administration announced in March 2022 that it was “designating Colombia a major non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally in recognition of two hundred years of diplomatic ties”, providing Colombia with increased access to economic and security programs.
Despite this history of cooperation between these two nations, the arrival of Gustavo Petro in August 2022 as Colombia’s first leftist president in modern times is thought to have complicated their relationship. The position of the current president on issues such as security and counternarcotics- “the centerpieces of collaboration over five U.S. and Colombian administrations”- specifically his government’s 2023 National Drug Policy, has caused alarm in Washington. His administration has shifted focus away from the low-level coca leaf growers to higher levels of the drug trade, which has inadvertently led to a record increase in coca growing and contributed to worsening security. In response to these concerning trends, the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives approved a bill in June 2024 to cut funding for Colombia by 50% for the 2025 fiscal year, as well as implementing conditions that needed to be met for the rest of the 2024 international aid to be released. Despite not becoming law, it set the tone for the Trump administration’s attitude towards their South American ally and signalled a souring in relations between the two nations.
However, Colombia is not alone in its rejection of Trump’s actions regarding its mass deportation policy. Similarly to Petro’s administration, the Brazilian government denounced the United States’ “degrading treatment” of its citizens on deportation flights at the end of January. During an unscheduled stop, the Brazilian authorities demanded that the restrained passengers be freed from handcuffs, and President Lula da Silva sent a Brazilian Air Force plane to transport the migrants to their destination. The Brazilian Ministry of Justice condemned the treatment of their citizens as a “flagrant disrespect for the fundamental rights”.
Thus, if Trump follows through on his promises to “deport scores of immigrants back to Latin American nations, carry out cross border attacks on Mexican drug cartels, increase economic sanctions on leftist governments in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, and seize control of the Panama Canal”, it may soon become impossible for his administration to pressure countries like Colombia into toeing the line. If there is closer cooperation between Latin American states in response to these measures, it could soon be Trump who is having to rethink his next move.
