Which Way Will Nevada Swing In The Presidential Election?
Klaus Vedfelt
Nevada is making a change in how they vote for the GOP 2024 Presidential candidate, from primary to caucus. This state has a history of being close in the outcome of Presidential elections and is changing things up for this upcoming election.
Nevada’s GOP wants to hold their own caucus for the Presidential election, which is predicted to confuse voters and benefit former President Donald Trump.
The caucus will cause the results of the GOP primary to not matter. Whoever wins the primary will not be receiving the delegates to the Republican National Convention but whoever wins the caucus will. There is no set date for the caucus but will likely be around the time of the GOP primary in February 2024.
This is not the first time that the state party will have their own caucus. This used to be the state’s preferred method for voting until the Democratic Party voted upon a law that moved the state to a primary in 2021. The reason is because primaries typically have a higher rate of turnout as opposed to their caucus counterparts and open more opportunities for voters to show up.
The change in Nevada to hosting a GOP caucus has caused tensions over who will win over the Presidential nomination for the Republican party. The Nevada GOP has decided that only candidates who run in the caucus will be able to be a part of the Republican national convention based on the results of the caucus. The state GOP has also decided that candidates are not allowed to run in both the caucus and the primary.
State GOP officials have stated that the reason for this election process change from a caucus to a primary is because they want to maintain the traditional system and to enforce election rules they do not believe is supported by the legislature. This distrust in the election process was fueled by former President Trump claiming election fraud in the 2020 election. They will be requiring voter ID for those who attend.
Gov. Ron DeSantis decided to run in the caucus against former President Donald Trump. This goes against the advice of DeSantis’ supporters who believe that the caucus has rules that are in favor of Donald Trump created by the Nevada Republican Party.
“It is disappointing that the Nevada Republican Party changed the rules against the will of the people just to benefit one candidate,”
“However, Ron DeSantis will fight to overcome these tactics, just like he will stop the Democrats’ attempts to bend the rules in their favor in November 2024 when he challenges, and ultimately defeats, Joe Biden — something Republicans failed to do in 2020,” Andrew Romeo, the communications director for the DeSantis campaign, states in a post on X.
Former Gov. Chris Christie, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Doug Burgum have all also decided to run in the caucus with Gov. DeSantis and former President Trump. These candidates all have the possibility of being voted on by delegates in Nevada.
Meanwhile, former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, and Sen. Tim Scott who have all decided to run in the primary as opposed to the caucus. This ruins their chances of getting the Republican National Convention vote unless the GOP changes their rules.
In contrast, the Democratic party will be basing their results on the state primary with President Joe Biden, Marianne Williamson, and others who have filed to run for this primary.
The difference between a primary and a caucus
Primaries: State primaries are run through the state and local governments. They are done through secret ballots so that no one other than the voters knows who voted for whom.
Caucus: Caucuses are private and held by the political party. They are typically held at the county, district, or precinct levels. Typically, participants will divide themselves to correspond with the group that supports the candidate they also support. Each group will give speeches as to why they support their candidate in hopes of converting others to their side. The number of people in each group corresponds with how many delegates the candidate will get in the national convention.
There are also ways that both the primaries and caucuses are open, closed, or hybrid.
During open primaries or caucuses, voters can vote for any candidate from any party.
During closed primaries or caucuses, voters can only vote for candidates from their registered party.
Hybrids are a variation of the two.
Why do they need delegates for the Republican National Convention?
Delegates are individuals who represent the constituents' political votes in each state and vote on behalf of the people at their state's national convention. They typically are political activists, local politicians, national party committee members, or early supporters of a particular candidate.
Each party has a different way of determining who gets to be a delegate.
Democratic delegates use a proportional method based on the support through the state and national caucuses.
Republican delegates are assigned based on proportional support or through a ‘winner-take-all’ method. This is in which the states delegate votes to the winner of the majority of votes.
Typically, a Democrat needs 2,375 out of 4,750 delegates to win and a Republican needs 1,277 out of 2,552 delegates.
There are also four different types of delegates.
Delegates pledged to vote for a specific candidate, such as the candidate who won in the state primary.
Those in the Democratic party are not pledged to vote for a certain candidate.
Those in the Republican party are bound and required to vote for a certain candidate based on who won the primary or caucus.
Republican delegates are not obligated to vote for any candidates.
What does this mean?
There may be a change in the election outcome that makes it so that the votes end up being as close as they have been in the past couple of Presidential elections.
Nevada has held a close election in the past few years. In the 2016 Presidential election, Hillary Clinton won with 47.9% of the vote as opposed to Donald Trump with 45.5% of the vote.
In the 2020 Presidential election, President Joe Biden won with 50.1% of the vote, primarily due to the two counties of Washoe and Clark County. The rest of the counties in Nevada are notoriously Republican-leaning and former President Donald Trump won with a significant gap in the votes.
Washoe County and Clark County are the reason for President Biden winning the state of Nevada in the 2020 election, if either of these states had flipped, then Donald Trump could have won the state over.
This change from primary to caucus could change the outcome of the election.
Current polls have found that voters will split with 46% supporting Biden and 45% supporting Trump. The majority of those who support Biden have stated that it will depend on who he is running against.
55% of those voting for Biden stated their ballot would be more a vote against Trump. With only 44% saying it would be in support of Biden. This is a change from the 63% of Trump’s supporters who say they would vote for him mostly as a show of support.
If former President Trump wins the Republican nomination, it is likely that the election results will be close and similar to how the 2020 election results were.
With the GOP determining that they will not count the primary as a proper vote for delegates, this is barring candidates from being in contention to campaign and go against Trump in this battlefield state.
There are 6 electoral votes in Nevada that could go either way depending on who wins the Republican National Convention; this is a small but mighty chunk of the majority (out of 270) needed to win the Presidency.
How does this affect voters?
There is a clear difference in the type of voters that attend caucuses versus the primaries. Caucuses typically have the more enthusiastic voters come out and support as opposed to primaries.
There is such a large amount of time and dedication that it takes to partake in a caucus that some voters do not have. Voters may have time to participate in a quick ballot but not a caucus. This will block certain voters from being able to vote since the primary will not be considered when it comes to the votes of the delegation.
They are known to be inconvenient for first responders, caregivers, parents, and those with after-work responsibilities. Those who cannot afford to take off work for an entire day will also be unable to attend.
Between 2016 and 2020, ten states changed from caucuses to primaries instead in order to boost the number of voters and encourage voters of all levels of enthusiasm to be able to participate in the election.
Some states have allowed candidates to show up to the caucus, this provides an ability for them to have more personal connections to their voters. This has been allowed in the past and has not been stated if it would be allowed in Nevada or not. Based on Nevada stating that those who attend need their voter ID, this probably will not be allowed.
What do critics of caucuses say?
Presidential caucuses are criticized fairly often because of their complex rules and intense time commitment. Caucuses can happen over a span of hours and take place on one weeknight. They are often criticized for poor organization and poor management, especially the caucuses hosted by the Democrats which are typically more procedurally complicated.
There is no way to know exactly how the Nevada caucus will turn out but it does limit the ability of those participating in the primary to have equal opportunity of winning the delegates votes in the Republican National Convention.