Far East: What’s Pyongyang’s Motivations Behind Sending Troops to Ukraine?
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have remained high for the past few weeks, after North Korea accused Seoul of using drones to spy on Pyongyang, its capital city. In addition to bombing roads connecting to the South, North Korea has begun sending 12,000 men to Russia to assist the latter’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, according to South Korean intelligence. Pyongyang’s involvement in a European conflict represents a notable escalation in its foreign policy, which took a sharp turn in 2020, moving the country ever closer to its Cold War-ally while posturing hostility against Seoul and the West. This escalatory move has raised significant concerns, considering the already-high tensions in Eastern Europe. It also brings about serious questions about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's real ambitions.
Historically, North Korea’s assistance to Russia was often seen as a strategic alignment rooted in mutual benefits and shared opposition to the U.S. and its allies. For Pyongyang, supporting Russia is more than an ideological move; it’s a calculated step toward achieving several strategic objectives: counterbalancing Western influences, showcasing military capabilities, gaining economic benefits, and enhancing its global status.
Strengthening the Alliance with Russia to counterbalance Western influence.
By directly aiding Russia in its conflict with Ukraine, Pyongyang reinforces its position as a committed ally to Moscow, in the hope of gaining favorable diplomatic and economic backing in return. This isn’t just a hollow wish. From the early Cold War years to today, Russia has consistently provided Pyongyang with diplomatic cover at the United Nations and other international fora, blocking multiple sanctions and allowing some diplomatic affairs to continue under the radar. In addition, Russia has been one of North Korea’s key trading partners and financial backers, helping to mitigate North Korea’s economic struggles and material shortages at critical points in history. Their shared anti-Western stance further solidifies this strategic partnership.
Showcasing Military Capability and Gaining Tactical Experience
The decision to deploy personnel to an active conflict zone not only grants North Korean forces critical battlefield experience but also allows Pyongyang to test, adapt, and improve its military tactics under real-world conditions. The exposure to advanced military training programs can help North Korea assess the efficacy of its equipment, train troops in complex combat scenarios, and gather insights on the latest warfare techniques, including those used by advanced militaries. Such knowledge is invaluable for refining North Korea’s own defense strategies, especially as it prepares for potential scenarios of inter-Korean conflict or direct confrontation with U.S. forces, which is likely to happen sooner or later. With rising tensions and the frequency of military exercises in the region, this experience could serve as a tactical advantage for Pyongyang in what appears to be an increasingly plausible escalation.
Economic Incentives through War Profiteering:
North Korea’s participation in Russian war affairs may also be economically motivated. Decades of international sanctions, paired with the severe economic impacts of its prolonged, self-imposed COVID-19 lockdown, have left North Korea’s economy on the brink. By selling or leasing military resources to Russia, or potentially expanding into arms trading, Pyongyang has an opportunity to secure much-needed foreign currency. This influx of funds not only sustains its already massive military infrastructure but also fuels the country’s ongoing weapons programs, enabling further development of its nuclear and missile capabilities. Beyond immediate financial gains, North Korea’s arms dealings with Russia could help it strengthen its own military-industrial complex by acquiring materials or technology that may otherwise be inaccessible due to sanctions. The revenue could also support broader economic priorities, such as sustaining food imports or essential goods that help pacify the domestic population.
Positioning Itself as a Significant Global Actor:
Last but not least, by actively participating in a major international conflict, North Korea signals its ambition to be recognized as a serious player in global power dynamics. This involvement goes beyond mere allegiance, as it allows Pyongyang to position itself as a strategic partner to a global power, potentially tipping the scales in regions where Russian interests align with its own. Aligning with Russia amplifies North Korea’s influence, as Pyongyang’s actions can serve to strengthen the anti-Western coalition, giving North Korea a more prominent platform to challenge U.S. and allied policies. Through its role in the conflict, North Korea may aim to gain diplomatic leverage, using its support for Russia as a bargaining chip in future negotiations with the West. This could manifest in calls for the easing of sanctions, economic aid, or even recognition as a nuclear state in exchange for scaling back its support or moderating its military behavior.
Implications for Northeast Asia and Beyond
The ripple effects of North Korea's actions extend far beyond the Korean Peninsula, affecting regional security in East Asia. North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, coupled with its provocations against South Korea, signals a concerning shift in its regional stance. North Korea’s growing alignment with Russia and, indirectly, China puts Japan and the United States on high alert. Japan, already wary of North Korea’s missile tests, is likely to accelerate its defensive capabilities and tighten its security cooperation with South Korea and the United States. For the U.S., North Korea’s unpredictable moves add complexity to an already strained geopolitical environment in East Asia, potentially necessitating increased military presence and investment in regional security frameworks. In addition the risk of nuclear escalation remains ever-present. North Korea’s military actions could prompt a regional arms race, particularly if it continues to expand its nuclear capabilities unchecked. South Korea and Japan may consider revisiting their own nuclear postures in response to an increasingly belligerent North Korea, which could further destabilize regional security.
The international community, particularly the United States, South Korea, and Japan, must now grapple with a more emboldened North Korea, whose actions reflect a willingness to defy international norms and ally itself with powers hostile to the West. Moving forward, proactive diplomacy and strategic alliances will be crucial to address the risks posed by North Korea’s expanding geopolitical footprint.