Mideast: NATO’s Fickle Friend Turkey
tarik haiga
Turkey has been a crossroads between Europe and Asia, East and West, and Christianity and Islam since the Ottoman Era. Under the Ottomans, they borrowed governing techniques and architecture from the French while building some of the world’s most elaborate Mosques. Today, they straddle that same divide with a modern flair. Today, they flirt with BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) while being an early member of NATO and applying to join the European Union. Though not among the new members at the 2024 BRICS summit in Russia, Erdogan reaffirmed Turkey’s partnership status by fully participating in the event.
Why have they always been a crossroads and how do they find themselves caught between all the world's greatest powers even today? Well, first, a geography lesson.
Turkey has a Mediterranean coastline to its South and a Black Sea coastline to its North. These coastal regions invite both maritime trade and conflict from Southern Europe, North Africa, the Levant, Russia, and Eastern Europe. Turkey also shares land borders with Syria, Iraq, and Iran, three volatile and unpredictable states.
As people, ideas, goods, and empires moved from the East to the West and back again, they always left a mark on Turkey, making it extremely diverse and cosmopolitan.
Their geography was not only impactful in the days of early empire. In 1952, Turkey was one of the first members of NATO, alongside Greece, joining just three years after the group’s formation. Ties to NATO were important protection for the relatively young Turkish state. Russia was just across the Black Sea, and the Cold War was heating up.
Turkey partners with several multilateral, Western-led organizations besides NATO. Turkey is a founding member of the OECD and the G20, it also sits on the Council of Europe, participates in the European Union Customs Union, and has been negotiating membership to the European Union since 2005.
Conversely, BRICS stands opposed to NATO, the EU, and, generally speaking, American and Western Europe lead organizations. By Turkey’s request to join, are they signaling a new direction in their foreign policy? Are they beginning a realignment? Or have they always been playing both sides to some extent?
Well, there’s no clear answer because Turkey, like many modern nations, has frequently changed its executive leadership over the last century, and no singular ideology or alignment can define Turkey’s stance on foreign policy. Each leader and political party has brought new ideas. The BRICS affair is evidence of an accumulating shift in Erdogan's international political alignment.
Analyzing the shifts in Turkey’s domestic policies helps to understand the shifts in its international policy. President Erdogan founded and led the Justice and Development Party, a conservative party whose founders and thinkers were interested in reforming Islamism.
Critics of Erdogan and his government point to shortcomings in promises of modern, secular democracy. The EU has stalled Turkey’s bid to join them because they claim Turkey’s political freedom and human rights status is too weak. In 2016, opponents of the ruling party launched a coup, claiming Erdogan had failed to deliver a modern, secular state. In Erdogan’s retaliatory crackdown, over 100,000 people were fired and tens of thousands arrested.
By seeking membership in BRICS, Turkey buys itself room to create a more authoritarian and powerful government promising fewer civil liberties and human rights. BRICS does not cater to the same humanist politics that NATO espouses.
Turkey’s flirtations with BRICS are not the same as a true partnership or alliance with Russia or India or China. Turkey has supplied Ukraine with weapons and spoken out against the invasion. The EU remains Turkey’s most significant foreign trade partner. The distinction between the attempt to join BRICS and true allyship with Russia is crucial because many American observers accuse them of switching sides. Remember that Turkey faced off against Russia in conflicts in Syria, Libya, and Ukraine. Turkey is a historical antagonist of Russia and is undoubtedly no trusted ally.
Nonetheless, Turkey continues to be courted by both sides of the pervasive Russo-European conflicts and American-Arab tensions as well. Its massive standing army makes it a devastating threat and a powerful friend. A quick scan of X, formerly Twitter, shows NATO accounts singing the praises of Turkey’s armed forces on their Republic Day celebration.
Turkey, the second largest army in NATO and eighth most powerful in the world with a top-ten air fleet, is a prized ally worldwide. Their central locale and dynamic, if authoritarian, leadership mean geopolitical advantages for their friends. Turkey’s bid to join BRICS accomplishes two foreign policy goals for them. First, it grants access to a network of allies who deal less in moral policing than Western multilateral allyships. Second, they hedge their bets in current tensions between Russia and Europe, as well as Israel and Iran. President Erdogan is shrewdly expanding his Rolodex and posturing his nation for the rapid reshuffling of the world order.
