Mideast: Frente Polisario, Morocco, and Iran? The Sahara’s Forgotten War
Western Sahara is a country along the Atlantic coast of North Africa. It borders Mauritania to the South, Morocco to the North, and Algeria to the East. Maps of North Africa most often show a dotted line border between Morocco and Western Sahara. Morocco has claimed sovereignty over Western Sahara for almost fifty years. The sprawling desert nation has one of the least dense populations in the world but has hundreds of miles of resource-rich coastline and large natural reserves of oil and phosphates.
In 1886, Spain invaded and occupied Western Sahara. Spain, France, and the UK were engaged in a geopolitical chess game over North African and Mediterranean control, which bulldozed the sociopolitical structures that existed in North Africa and was frequently violent. Three-quarters of a century later, when Morocco achieved complete independence (excluding Ceuta and Melilla, which remain Spanish colonial possessions to this day) from France and Spain in 1956, they immediately claimed nominal sovereignty over Western Sahara.
Spain ceded Western Sahara in 1976 following international pressure from Morocco and UN decolonial policies. However, Western Sahara hardly enjoyed independence before Mauritania and Morocco claimed all its territory. Sahrawi people formed a pro-independence militia called the Polisario Front and formed a government-in-exile for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic. The Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, fought a brutal guerilla war that chased out Mauritania after only three years (Mauritania also fell to a military coup in 1978 which helped the Polisario Front). Morocco was not so easily deterred.
After fifteen years of guerilla war, the UN declared a ceasefire between the Polisario Front and Morocco in 1991. Since then, while the border is still hostile and tensions remain high, the violence of the conflict has all but dissipated. Morocco controls most of Western Saharan territory and almost all of the coastline. The Polisario Front, meanwhile, has held the eastern quarter of the country, which is a sprawling harsh desert and very sparsely populated. The two territories are divided by an earthen wall, mined, and protected by Moroccan soldiers, that cuts through the desert.
Recent developments in the international space have handed Morocco all but certain victory in its annexation campaign. In 2020, the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Morocco recognizing Israel and joining the Abraham Accords. Spain announced support for Moroccan sovereignty in 2021 to strengthen their relationship with the kingdom, followed by France in 2024.
The African Union maintains its recognition of Western Sahara, although it still allows Morocco to participate fully. Despite this recognition, the Polisario Front and its Liberated Territory in the country's East receive little international support beyond nominal recognition. Supporting their independence has slowly faded out of fashion on the continent aided by Morocco’s rise as an economic powerhouse. Their primary ally in the struggle is Algeria.
Algeria has supported the Polisario movement since its inception. The reasons for this are complicated. Algeria held a revolutionary identity in the latter half of the twentieth century. They had just won independence from France and held onto ideals of Arab socialism and popular self-determination. They supported the Polisario’s declaration of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
Only a decade or so earlier, in 1963, Morocco and Algeria fought the month-long Sand War over their southern border which included the region of Algeria that borders Western Sahara. Memories of these conflicts persist; Algeria and Morocco’s relationship is competitive and unfriendly. Algeria hosts tens of thousands of Western Saharan refugees in Tindouf, just across their border. Algeria claims to champion the victims of Moroccan human rights violations and colonial aggression. Morocco shrugs. During the conflict over Western Sahara, Frente Polisario also held and tortured captured Moroccan soldiers on Algerian soil.
Between 2020 and 2024, Morocco and Algeria have severed or diminished their diplomatic relations every year. Frequently, they accuse the other of committing a crime or assassination on foreign territory, or Morocco’s relationship with Israel is a deal breaker, or Algeria’s support of the Polisario Front is a deal breaker. Whatever the reason, they are never happy with one another.
Alarming many in the Maghreb region, Morocco and Algeria also significantly increased their military spending over the last years. The African Sahel region south of Morocco and Algeria has been roiled by coups and conflict since 2021, and Morocco and Algeria are ramping up their capabilities to protect themselves from regional spiraling. However, it also means that when tensions between them are high, their capacity for conflict with one another is equally high.
This year, when Iran is the biggest threat to stability in the Middle East, Morocco has severed diplomatic ties with them. According to Rabat, Iran has been funding and arming the Polisario Front through the Iranian embassy in Algeria and Hezbollah agents. Iran and Hezbollah both deny this.
Morocco’s incentive to keep Iran at arm’s length is strong because of Morocco’s posture as an Arab Muslim ally to the United States, Saudi Arabia, and, since the Abraham Accords, Israel. They likely are truly fearful of Iranian interference in the conflict over Western Sahara as well, whether or not they have evidence of true interference. The situation of the Sahrawi people has often been compared to the Palestinians’ situation. Iran claims to champion the Palestinian people and wreaks havoc across the Middle East supposedly in their name. Morocco is fearful of the same chaos in their region.
Iran also has incentives to support Algeria and the Polisario movement. Firstly, Morocco is no ally to Iran or the Axis of Resistance. Gaining influence and military capability in North Africa would be vital to the Iranian project of holding the West back. Algeria, a large nation with a revolutionary history and no strong alliances except with France, is a better bet for an Iranian influence campaign than Morocco. The Polisario Front is a good talking point to generate populist support as they have done with the Palestinians for the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Declare yourself the righteous champion of the oppressed and no one checks what else you champion.
Western Sahara will continue in this state of flux for the foreseeable future. They have declared their own state and govern in exile from refugee camps in Tindouf. Meanwhile, Morocco, their occupier, controls 75 percent of their territory including the vast coastline and has built an armed border across the desert to prevent an uprising. France, Spain, and the US, three powerful Western observers with deep influence in the international community, have declared Morocco the sovereign state over Western Sahara. It is tough to imagine the Polisario Front continuing to build strength or ability to attack without a major ally. Perhaps, Iran would be their best bet. Though no third parties could confirm nor deny Morocco’s allegations against Iran, it would surprise no one if Iran had or will try to support the Polisario independence fighters as a method for influence in North Africa.
