Mideast: Challenges Ahead for Oman's New Sultan
After the death of the Sultan of Oman, Qaboos bin Said, in early 2020, one of the biggest issues facing his successor, Haitham bin Tariq, would be to figure out how to maintain what had been the civic and diplomatic success of his predecessor. Sultan bin Said, who had been the ruler of Oman since deposing his father, Said bin Taimur, in July 1970, had widely been accredited for modernizing the country and opening up diplomatic relations with Oman’s neighbors as well as the West. His rule had largely been juxtaposed with his father’s regime - which although arguably brought about the initial iteration of a modern Omani nation-state, had been characterized as regressive, isolated, and a de-facto British vassal state. Through concessions to rebellion groups and the support of Britain, Jordan, and Iran, the new Sultan usurped authority from his father and consolidate power in the country.
Oman’s recently appointed Sultan bin Tariq is poised to carry on his predecessor’s work when it comes to tact diplomacy and prudent economic decisions, but will he go his own way?
The new Sultan was previously the Minister of Heritage and Culture and was made Sultan on January 11th, 2020 after a procedure in which if three days passed without agreement from the Royal Family Council, a sealed letter, written by the late Sultan, would be opened and would reveal his preferred successor. Bin Tariq is the cousin of the previous Sultan and his transition to the Sultanate was seamless and largely facilitated by a secure political structure that the previous Sultan was able to build. Although this can be disputed, considering the late bin Said was purportedly growing more isolated and wary of finding a successor.
Current Challenges
The Sultan of Oman is the most powerful position in the country and is effectively the head of everything from finance to defense, a source of not only debate and protestation from the public, but also of the many responsibilities that the current Sultan will have to endure. Bin Tariq will need to figure out, like the rest of the Gulf states, how to wane off the country from its dependence on oil, while also continuing his predecessor’s tact for diplomacy. This all while keeping in mind domestic matters and the public opinion of the country’s citizenry. Oman has in the last 10 years, following a rise in domestic unrest that mirrored the Arab spring, attempted to deal with the demands of an increasingly disillusioned Omani public. All through the protests were tame in comparison to other countries, in the sense that they did not call for the resignation of bin Said, they did showcase that the country does have its domestic problems and that the population has since 2011 been growing increasingly suspicious of corrupt practices within the country and has called for reforms. Bin Said did make concessions to protesters, but protests are still ongoing, albeit sporadically, and the new Sultan will have to figure out how to increase public opinion and meet the demands of the country’s mostly younger population.
Bin Tariq’s Plan for Oman’s Economy and Relations with Its Neighbours
Oman plays an important role in the Middle East, owing to its geographic location between Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and the UAE, and its strategic position in the Persian Gulf. Oman’s Musandam Governate, an exclave separated from mainland Oman, gives the country the advantage of control over the Strait of Hurmuz, which they essentially share with Iran (although the United States has on numerous times made it clear that it does not recognize Oman’s claims over territorial waters). Access to the Straight of Hormuz gives Oman an advantage in exporting, and the country is set to build new oil refineries near strategic ports. Oil is immensely important to the country, meaning that the country is victim to volatility in the oil market and will need to look to other avenues to ensure stability in the country’s economy. Natural gas has become increasingly important for diversification. The country has recently opened up a wealth fund with around $18 billion in assets, perhaps to find other sources of revenue for Oman.
Oman's Main Exports (2018)
The Sultan’s predecessor through the prudent use of oil revenues was able to fund the development of Oman’s infrastructure and raise the country’s standard of living. To do this, however, Oman would, like many other Gulf states, employ foreign workers — although this has been challenged with Oman’s pivot towards an ‘Omanisation’ policy that seeks to have national Omanis take the place of expatriates. Bin Tariq has expressed his intent to curb unemployment in Oman and the Omanisation policy will no doubt play a part in the country’s job creation. He has also recently made it clear that he will seek to reduce the public debt and will focus on ‘modernizing’ the country further as well as continue his predecessor’s diplomatic efforts in the region.
In addition to economic issues, the current Sultan will have to address Oman’s role in the current geopolitical situation in the region. The late Sultan bin Said through diplomatic efforts was able to raise the status of Oman as a mediating state and leveraged the country’s neutrality to become independent from the various rivalries in the region. Oman, unlike its Gulf neighbors, has maintained steady relations with Iran, Israel, and the West and has leveraged these relationships in an effort not only to stabilize security for itself but also to further its economic interests. When it comes to the inter-regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Oman has had a history of trying to ease tensions and although it has maintained good relations with Iran, in 2015 it joined a coalition of Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia, in a military alliance of sorts with explicitly anti-Iranian and anti-Shiite leanings. The fruits of the alliance are yet to be seen and it may be too early to note any sort of deviation from Oman’s previous foreign policy.
Sultan Haitham bin Tariq may, to keep stability within the region and near the Persian Gulf especially, carry on his predecessor’s tactful relations with regional powers. When it comes to international matters, Oman has usually been a Switzerland in an otherwise volatile and constantly clashing group of countries. But it’s real trouble may very well lie within. Domestically, Oman will have to make prudent economic decisions to curb dependence on oil and to offset not only unemployment but also the growing damage done by the COVID-19 pandemic. It will also have to deal with a population that in the past decade has been no stranger to civil unrest and protest and may grow disillusioned with bin Tariq’s leadership if the Sultan is deemed inept to handle the country’s domestic problems.
It would be an exaggeration to claim that the Sultan is stepping out of the footsteps of the late bin Said, but he may not be able to depend on the inroads his predecessor made in modernizing the country. Oman may continue to be a mediator in the Middle East but its ability to do so hinges on the country’s ability to deal with its economy and citizenry.
