European Central: Eastern European Brain Drain Reversing Thanks To Covid-19

SERGEI SUPINSKY

When the pandemic became serious in Europe last year in March an unexpected consequence was the reversal of previous emigration patterns.  While Eastern European countries are used to seeing working-age people move abroad, particularly the young, this reversal in migration is a welcomed surprise.  Most notable are the 1,3000,000 Romanians, 500,000 Bulgarians, and potentially between 450-500,000 Ukrainians have moved back.    

This reversal in migration is important to Eastern Europe, where many countries have suffered from declining populations for decades.  Eastern Europe is the only region in the world to have seen a population decline for the past three decades straight.  A lot of the population loss occurred after several Eastern European countries became part of the European Union and their citizens eventually gained the right to live and work in any other member state.  Despite Eastern European Union member states having higher annual economic growth on average than in Western Europe, there is still a significant gap in wages.  Romanians working in Italy can expect to make three times as much as they would in Romania.  

When polled, it is estimated that while 66 percent of Bulgarians who have returned will move abroad again after the pandemic, 34 percent will attempt to stay in Bulgaria.  Similar to Bulgaria, a third of the Romanians who have returned during the pandemic are motivated to stay as well.  If these workers are successful, Romania will have gained back 10.7 percent of the four million Romanians who left the country.  Romania would also have a population of just over 20 million which would be the first time Romania’s population was this high since 2013.  This would be beneficial in particular to Romania as it is the member state that lost the most workers after joining the European Union.    

Hardships While Working Abroad

Eastern Europeans faced difficult work conditions in Western and Southern Europe, motivating some to look for work to stay permanently in Eastern Europe.  This is particularly true for Romanian women who moved to Italy.  As many Romanians found work as Badanti (caregivers) for the elderly in Italy, doctors in Eastern Europe have coined a new term for those struggling mentally after working in Italy.  Some Migrant workers who worked in Italy have been diagnosed with Italy syndrome.  These workers face isolation in Italy, and face backlash from back home in Romania.  Many Romanian women have moved abroad to Italy to support their families but get accused of abandoning their families.  These women also sometimes struggle if their husbands are unwilling to take on domestic responsibilities traditionally part of a woman’s role in the home.  Some Romanian men do not want to accept that they are dependent on their wives financially as well.  These Romanian women also struggle to cope with watching the elderly they care for arriving at death’s door.

Returning Workers Potentially Carriers

At first, Eastern European countries had a negative reaction towards those working abroad coming back during the pandemic.  There was a fear in Ukraine that these workers would bring covid from other European countries.  This is understandable as Western European countries saw significantly more cases at the beginning of the pandemic, including countries that host a large number of workers from Eastern Europe.  Not only was this a potential risk in Ukraine, but for any Eastern European Country that saw a large number of workers returning, particularly Romania and Bulgaria.  Many Eastern Europeans working abroad worked in industries that put them at higher risk of contracting Covid-19. 

Eastern European countries were also considered less prepared and had less testing capabilities than Western European countries earlier on in the pandemic.  Hungary’s population is slightly larger than Austria, yet earlier on in the pandemic, Hungary was only conducting a quarter of Covid-19 tests that Austria was.  Another issue is the number of doctors who have moved to countries for higher pay.  This was felt in Romania when doctors started reporting to have Covid-19, but there were not enough doctors to work in their place.  The City hospital in Suceava, Romania was temporarily closed when there was no medical staff to take the place of 100 who contracted Covid-19.  Eastern European doctors also struggled with a shortage of PPE leading to doctors begging for help but faced backlash by police in at least Hungary and Bulgaria.      

Competition For Labor

While countries are attempting to entice returning workers to stay, countries that lost workers are working hard to get them back.  Romanians, Bulgarians, and Ukrainians are important to farms across Europe.  In particular, these migrants are important to the Polish economy.  Poland’s quick growth is no secret, but Poland owes a significant portion of its success to Ukrainian workers.  It was estimated that between 2014-2018 Ukrainian workers 11 percent of Poland’s GDP growth.  Finland, Germany, Italy, and Poland all were looking for workers to help work on the farms and harvest crops in their countries.  Already back then, Ukrainian migration to Poland was slowing down.  At the same time, Ukraine’s unemployment spiked to over 500,000 unemployed workers which were 64 percent higher than last year.  It was estimated there were only 51,000 job openings available.          

Compared to Bulgarians and Romanians, Ukrainians appear to be more eager to working abroad again.  A noticeable difference between these countries is Bulgaria and Romania are members of the European Union, but Ukraine is not.  This puts a financial strain though as while Ukrainians working abroad do not pay taxes, they still receive benefits from the Ukrainian government.  Ukrainian workers are still eligible for pensions, maternity, and sick leave, along with compensation for injuries that occurred at work.  At the same time, remittances sent back by migrant workers are important to the Ukrainian economy and were 7.8 percent of Ukraine’s economy in 2019.  Bulgaria and Romania have enjoyed quick economic growth after their accession to the European Union and have higher wages than Ukraine.  Bulgaria and Romania have significantly lower employment rates than some of the European Union member states they were working in such as Spain and Italy.  Romania and Bulgaria have a need for additional labor, particularly high-skilled labor.   This may help more migrants stay for good in Bulgaria and Romania.  These migrants may be happier if they can stay closer to their families as well.  The primary reason migrants stated they returned to their home country was to be with their family during the pandemic.