European Central: Assessing Austria’s Election
associated press
On September 29, 2024, legislative elections for the National Council, the lower house of Austria’s bicameral parliament, returned a stunning result. The right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) won the most votes and the most seats, marking the first time a further to the right party won the most seats in any election since the Second World War. This success came largely at the expense of Austria’s governing coalition. The center-right, Christian democratic Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) lost twenty seats, finishing six seats behind the FPÖ. Meanwhile, the ÖVP’s coalition partner, the center-left Greens, lost ten seats and a significant share of their vote. The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) gained one seat.
Speaking to supporters in Vienna, the FPÖ’s leader Herbert Kickl exclaimed “We have opened the door to a new era. We are now really going to write this new chapter in Austrian history together.” To examine what a future FPÖ-led government potentially holds for Austria, it helps to first look back to the past. The FPÖ was founded in the 1950s by Nazi veterans, including former members of the SS. Though the party has downplayed its Nazi past and aims to present itself to voters as an ‘anti-establishment alternative to the mainstream center-right and left,’ it frequently utilizes antisemitic and fascist references and tropes to appeal to its base.
Kickl has an expressed desire to be a Volkskanzler (people’s chancellor), which ‘carries echoes of the term used to describe Adolf Hitler in Nazi Germany.’ Just two days before the election, at a funeral service for a long-serving FPÖ politician, attendees, which included several former and current FPÖ politicians, sang an old SS anthem. However, the party quickly denied that the song, which dates back to 1814, has any ‘National Socialist sentiments.’
Kickl and the FPÖ campaigned on a platform styled ‘Fortress Austria.’ The election program called for the creation of a more ‘homogenous’ nation through the ‘remigration of uninvited foreigners.’ In the campaign, the party claimed that this could be achieved in part by exerting tighter control over borders and ‘suspending the right to asylum via an emergency law.’ Beyond immigration, the FPÖ capitalized on voters’ discontent over the government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and a faltering economy. The party also advocated for an end to sanctions against Russia and has been strongly critical of European military support to Ukraine.
Despite its success in the election, the way forward for the FPÖ is far from certain. The FPÖ only won 57 out of 183 seats in the National Council, meaning it will need to form a coalition government if it wishes to rule. It remains to be seen whether the party will be able to accomplish this. The SPÖ, the Greens, and the liberal NEOS have all ruled out forming a coalition with the FPÖ. The only option that remains is to form a coalition with the ÖVP. However, this may prove difficult as the ÖVP has refused to join a government led by Kickl, with the party’s leader, current chancellor Karl Nehammer, saying of Kickl that it would be “impossible to form a government with someone who adores conspiracy theories.” This is in reference to Kickl’s past statements accusing the World Health Organization of being a purported world government and the annual conference of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland as being a preparatory meeting for the establishment of a New World Order.
Indeed, Kickl and the FPÖ may face additional obstacles to achieving power. Austria’s constitution grants its president, currently Alexander Van der Bellen, the final say on all nominations for chancellor and government ministers. Van der Bellen, a former Green member of the National Council who has been president since 2017, ‘has made little secret of his distaste for Kickl and is unlikely to nominate him as chancellor.’ Nevertheless, it would be problematic for Van der Bellen to overlook the FPÖ’s success in the election. The party therefore has a chance to build a coalition government with the ÖVP. However, to do so it may have to oust Kickl from his position as party leader.
Ultimately, the decision of enshrining the FPÖ as the majority party of government may never end up reaching Alexander Van der Bellen. Coalition negotiations currently remain unresolved. At this point, the most likely government appears to be an anti-FPÖ alliance between the ÖVP, the SPÖ, and NEOS. Combined the parties have 110 seats, more than enough to form a majority government.
Regardless of what happens in the immediate future, the implications of the FPÖ’s success in Austria’s elections are serious. The results are a worrying sign for EU leaders in Brussels. Kickl has frequently lambasted EU ‘elites’ in Brussels and has closely aligned his vision for Austria with Victor Orban’s model of ‘illiberal democracy’ in Hungary. If Kickl succeeds in creating a coalition government, then the EU would be faced with a Eurosceptic ‘populist bloc’ in Central Europe, encompassing Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia.
The FPÖ’s success in Austria is also representative of a much broader right-wing populist wave that has spread across Europe. Sister parties have seen success in Italy, Germany, and the Netherlands over the last year. The EU and mainstream parties have struggled to contain or counter this growing problem. This failure has compelled Austrians – and Europeans more broadly – to reflect on the shifting political winds and the causes of the far-right surge. As one Austrian citizen said in the aftermath of the election: “I’m asking myself what we did wrong in the past 75 years.”