European Central: Combating Russian Disinformation In The Baltic States

rob dobi

In recent years, Russia has made disinformation operations critical to its destabilization campaigns against foreign countries. Western democracies, which prioritize a free press, have been the most vulnerable to these attacks. Russia has seen considerable success in targeting the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and other European Union member states.

These disinformation operations consist of various tactics employed by a diverse range of state and non-state actors. Typically, the approach ‘begins by infiltrating an audience then influencing it, followed by using kompromat to drive damaging narratives against certain politicians, movements, or organizations.’ This process is facilitated through a combination of Russian state media, Russian intelligence agencies, ‘troll factories,’ and freelance hackers and bloggers. The result is a ‘multichanneled, highly active, relentless propaganda machine that has pumped out a tremendous amount of damaging information in multiple contexts.’ Russian disinformation is effective due to a strategic shift in communication that focuses on establishing and repeatedly promoting false narratives through a wide array of channels and actors. Since Russian narratives are often original, the target audience is not equipped with the necessary counter-narratives, lending them an appearance of credibility. This relentless repetition can overwhelm media consumers, making them susceptible to false information.

While Russian disinformation campaigns have only become critical to US politics since 2016, the Baltic States have a long-standing familiarity with them. All three Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) share a land border with Russia and were under Soviet control until the collapse of the bloc in the early 1990s. Despite gaining their independence, analysts observe that Russian information campaigns against the countries continued after 1991. A key reason that the Baltic States have been a prime target of Russian disinformation is the presence of sizable ethnic Russian populations within their borders. Estonia is 22% ethnic Russian; Latvia is 24.2%; and Lithuania is 5%. The Baltic States have long been concerned with the influence of the Russian-language and state-controlled media on these populations, as these outlets present narratives that are in stark contrast with mainstream Baltic and Western views. In particular, Russian-backed media often highlights grievances within the local Russian populations, such as citizenship and language rights.

Percentage of Ethnic Russian Population in the Baltic States

The Baltic States have often responded to Russian disinformation in similar ways. They have fined or suspended media outlets and television channels that display overt pro-Kremlin biases. They have also supported independent Russian-language media that is critical of the Russian government, aiming to provide alternative sources of information for their Russian-speaking populations. The Baltic States have benefited from Western assistance, including the NATO StratCom Centre of Excellence based in Riga, Latvia. The StratCom Centre analyzes Russian disinformation campaigns in the Baltic States, studying pro-Russian narratives, monitoring online trolling, and developing strategies to counter hostile influences.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have each taken unique measures to combat Russian disinformation campaigns. According to a 2018 StratCom report, Estonia was the most frequent target of Russian cyber operations. Estonia has implemented several important countermeasures. Estonia’s Defense League (EDL) has been critical to these efforts. The EDL, which is a voluntary security force operating under the purview of the Ministry of Defense, is closely involved with cyber defense, playing a crucial role in Estonia’s fight against Russian disinformation.

Another measure that Estonia has taken to combat Russian disinformation is the implementation of a robust media literacy curriculum in its schools. This initiative was started in 2007 after Russia launched a comprehensive disinformation campaign targeting the ethnic Russian minority in Estonia after the country moved a Soviet-era military statue. Since then, all schools in Estonia have been required to teach media literacy to students. In early grade levels, media literacy is incorporated into other subjects, such as mathematics and social studies. In high school, all Estonian public-school pupils must take a ‘media and influence’ course that ‘focuses on the role of media and journalism in society, including how social media works, how bots and trolls function and how to protect against them.’ Estonia has also sought to educate older citizens on the importance of media literacy. The government has reached out to older people ‘through advertisements, public service announcements, open talks, and an annual Media Literacy Week to raise awareness across the country.’ As a result, in 2021, Estonia ranked third in the Media Literacy Index of thirty-five European nations.

In Latvia, the government has enacted several laws to reduce Russian influence and strengthen national cohesion amid concern over threats posed by Moscow. These measures include removing Soviet-era monuments, separating the Latvian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church, and banning Russian TV broadcasts. The most significant change is the elimination of the Russian language from school curricula, mandating Latvian as the sole language of education. The laws are motivated by fears of Russian expansionism in light of the Ukraine invasion, as well as Russian information operations aimed at sowing discord between ethnic and non-ethnic Russian populations in Latvia. Latvian leaders argue that promoting the Latvian language will improve integration and reduce the influence of Russian propaganda. However, critics warn that these laws will exacerbate ethnic divisions and that banning Russian media could have a negligible impact on the spread of Russian disinformation.  

Despite having a relatively small ethnic Russian population, Lithuania has developed a robust apparatus to combat Russian disinformation. One aspect of this is a volunteer group on Facebook called the ‘elves,’ which is part of a broader, transnational network of ordinary citizens dedicated to combating Russian propaganda. This group, which has thousands of members, identifies fake news and accounts generated by Russian troll farms. By reporting the disinformation ‘en masse to the platform they eventually generate enough complaints to have it removed by Facebook.’ The elves not only flag false narratives but also counter them with factual information, collaborating with think tanks and media organizations to educate the public. The group has been so effective that Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense has recommended it as a way for citizens to join the fight against Russian propaganda.

The Baltic States have endured relentless Russian disinformation campaigns for decades, shaped by their diverse populations, location, and complex history.  These campaigns have attempted to exploit divisions within their populations and turn the countries against the West. Due to ongoing efforts, Russian propaganda has struggled to influence the Baltic States to the same degree as other European and Western nations. Countries facing Russian disinformation challenges could benefit from studying the counter-propaganda measures employed by the Baltic States.