Third Way: On His Way To The White House
Joe Raedle
With the election finally drawing to a close on Saturday, November 7th, cities across America erupted with joy at President-elect Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. It need not be said that the Third-Way columnist is more than pleased with the race's result.
With his path to the White House all but assured, Biden has an immense amount of work to do. From organizing his COVID-19 taskforce, filling his cabinet, and transitioning with a less than helpful White House, the 60+ days before Biden becomes President will be filled with political movement and appointments. Thus, setting the stage for what the Biden administration will accomplish.
The Senate, however, is projected to retain Republican control after two run-offs in January. Because of this, Biden's new-deal sized plans may be watered-down, and his policy positions may find a home squarely in the centre, whence he has drifted left. Despite this, Republican cooperation in the Senate, which seems a viable possibility, an ideologically diverse cabinet, and executive power could allow Biden to implement an American vision of stability and global success over the next four years.
The Biden administration will first set their sights on COVID-19. He has already named a task force for this mission and will enact much of his agenda in the early days of his administration. Biden plans on sticking with the World Health Organization (WHO) while issuing national guidance and standards on how to navigate the pandemic. Indeed, the President-elect has already called for a national mask-mandate. His willingness to go over governors who resist the mandate, and instead work with mayors and local officials may seem divisive. Yet, it is an implicit acknowledgement of local officials' power, which is sorely overdue in the federal government. That coupled with the funding Biden plans to provide states and localities is a further endorsement of their ability, and what is set to be a successful multi-level pandemic plan.
Coupled with the response to COVID-19 are Biden's economic recovery plans. Two of his strategies centre around caregivers and educators, making the former more affordable and strengthening the role of the latter. His transition plan also echoes his FDR styled campaign agenda, with a focus on American protectionism and manufacturing. The President-elect hopes to use his economic plans as a means of curbing socioeconomic racial equality as well, investing in low-income communities and ensuring job security for them. Another central first-day priority, which Biden hopes to link with his infrastructure revolution, is climate-change. American investment, overall, is slated to come first on Biden's priority list.
The foreign policy arena, on the other hand, will be one of the caves where Trump's shadow is likely to remain, and will be hard to defeat. Although American allies, who expressed subtle relief at the end of Trump's reign, are preparing for Biden to strengthen ties with NATO. Parallel to staying in WHO, Biden has made it clear that he wants to rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement, a further indication of his axiomatic belief in allied cooperation.
Yet it seems likely that the Biden administration will take a more muscular policy when it comes to the liberal world order. He is likely to encourage NATO allies to keep up defense spending as the world becomes less stable and tensions with the East rise. His tactics will be less of an enlargement of the liberal-world order and more of a defense of it, turning away from those who abuse democracy and taking a hard line on human rights. With bi-partisan and public sentiment turning against China, a Biden administration is expected to be tougher on the country’s human-rights violations and trade tactics.
Breaking Through The Red Wall
Biden's toughest challenge will be an unrelenting Senate. As it stands, the Democrats seem set to be the minority party in the Senate, unless they are able to win both seats in Georgia's run-off elections. This will make Biden's more ambitious plans hard to enact. If nominations or policies do not appease GOP Senators Biden will feel his party’s minority in the Senate.
There are two tactics the President-elect can employ to deal with this. The first would be acting in a manner similar to his predecessor and maximizing his executive orders. Trump has already expanded executive authority greatly (mostly for his own gain), and precedents of executive expansion typically hold over the years. This leaves Biden entering an era where the presidency is exceedingly strong. Biden already has plans to issue executive orders around immigration, setting up a task force to reunite the children separated at the border, end the Middle-Eastern travel ban, and make DACA long-lasting. He could expand their role in relation to climate change policy as well. A Republican-controlled Senate would be hypocritical if they asserted Biden was overstepping.
Biden's other possible strategy is to be the unifier he strives to be, reaching across the aisle in order to rule as an American president. His aims to have an ideologically diverse cabinet indicate both a willingness to embrace cooperation and a practical fear of continued hardball politics by Republicans.
Senator Mitch McConnell has indicated he intends not to cooperate easily on cabinet appointees. This does not mean the Senate will be a game of hare and hounds. Both Senators Mitt Romney and Lisa Murkowski, frequent Trump critics and respected moderate Republicans, are two of three Republican Senators to have congratulated Biden on his victory. With the addition of Senators Susan Collins of Maine (the third to congratulate Biden) and possibly Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Biden has a realistic chance of getting policy legislated. With this mixed simple majority, however, any policy would still be subject to the filibuster.
What Biden must strive to achieve is real unity outside of Congress. Some right-wing media outlets have still refused to call the election, and the President's presence will likely not diminish once he is out of the office. Half the country will believe that the election was stolen from Trump, despite most of the President’s lawsuits falling flat, making Biden an illegitimate ruler in their eyes. Appointing GOP cabinet members is a strong start to quelling this problem, but the President-elect will have to grapple with the misinformation epidemic the far-right is behind if he wants to adequately heal American divisions.
None of this should result in underestimating the value of the former Vice-President's success. While America remains divided, in public and in congress, and crisis is still clutching the country, the expulsion of Trump from the White House signals the last haunting howls of a globally destabilizing presidency.
Biden has plans for the pandemic, as well as plans for working with (or without) a Republican Senate, depending on if they jump the Trump ship. Nonetheless, Biden will strive to unify the country, be it through conservative cabinet appointments or the hard work of cooperation. That message, which played a central role in the President-elect's speech on November 9th was not historic or politically ambitious. In 2020, however, it exuded an empathy that had been lost for four years and one that ushered in a palpable sense of relief and hope for what comes next.
