Liberty Exposé: Will Younger Generations Abandon Conservatism?
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Political theory ultimately resides in the hearts and minds of people. While political traditions retain a degree of autonomy and internal consistency over time, their true meanings achieve clarity in the sentiments, mores, and convictions of each upcoming generation, and are liable to alteration by them. Traditions both furnish the categories of imagination and undergo revision in the process of being translated into new circumstances. To the citizen of a hopeful and generous disposition, whether on the left or the right, this fact should come as a welcome reprieve, for it indicates that new paths forward could lie on the horizon.
As the alleged guardian of tradition, the past, and the “old ways,” conservatives should make extra efforts to embrace this fact of intergenerational transformation. Where progressives have change and experimentation woven into their DNA, conservatives are apt to mistake new auspicious developments for signs of deterioration: to dig in the heels of resistance and retreat into insular tribes precisely when they ought to be encouraging the imaginative efforts of their younger, would-be inheritors.
If this tendency persists, there will be little to ameliorate the fate of political obsolescence. As Julius Krein pithily points out, conservatism has become a refuge for political losers: “rejects of the post-Cold War order” who fail to recognize that the old arrangements they wish to conserve are already gone. By continuing to advocate for anachronisms (whether it be the idealized free-market of the 19th century, or “other Baby-Boomer-generation enthusiasms”) that do not map onto the changing dynamics of today’s economy, conservatives have become increasingly marginalized and unable to conceptualize how actual political power in an increasingly dynamic world could be directed. Thus, they are losing a valuable opportunity to challenge the rule of oligarchs and technocrats (who have no real need for conservatism) and to animate the younger generations (who may very well slough it off in favor of movements prepared to meet the needs of the day).
So what can we expect from the political profile of Millennials and their younger Gen Z counterparts? Will they continue to abandon conservatism in favor of more liberal movements, or something else? Or will their moral imaginations permit the emergence of a new conservative alternative? What they do will in part depend on the available alternatives.
The Profile of Millennials and Gen Z-ers
The Millennial and Gen Z generations are set to be the most ethnically diverse and educated generations to date in the United States, and generally speaking, they tend to align more with one another than with older generations on a number of salient political issues. According to some recent Pew studies, both generations are more likely than older ones to want the government to play a larger role in solving issues, to view increasing racial and ethnic diversity in the country as a good thing, and to recognize that human activity plays a role in climate change.
The younger generations are also comparable in their view that racial discrimination provides a major barrier to Blacks’ progress. In the case of Millennials, 52% in 2017 said that racial discrimination is the main reason many black people cannot get ahead, compared to 40% of X-ers and 36% of Boomers. Even among Republicans, which constitute an overwhelmingly white electorate, Millennials and Gen Z-ers are more likely to say Blacks are treated less fairly than whites (30% and 43% respectively, compared to 23% of Gen X-ers and 20% of Boomers).
These seemingly more liberal trends corroborate the view that Millennials and Gen Z-ers are the most liberal and Democratic-leaning generations in America, even if we factor in the tendency for generations to become more Republican as they get older. Though we can expect the number of Republican Millennials to grow in the coming decades, the rate at which the generations are becoming Republican as they get older seems to be decreasing.
While the voting tendencies of Z-ers remain uncertain given their age bracket (the oldest turn 23 in 2020), it remains clear that more Millennials vote Democrat than Republican. However, this pro-Democratic support does not seem to come from a profound connection to the Party, but rather from a dearth of viable alternatives. 50% of Millennials consider themselves political independents (compared to 34% in the U.S. as a whole), and more so than older generations, they are less likely to see much of a difference between the Democratic and Republican Parties.
These indicators point to the possibility that many in the younger generations operate with a “lesser of two evils” attitude when they vote. If half of Millennials feel that neither Party has yet to capture the core of their political imagination, and their pro-Democratic leanings come from relatively marginal differences between the Parties, then the voting preferences of Millennials (and potentially Z-ers) may be fairly open to alternatives that better capture their latent values.
But what are these latent values, and how do they map onto the struggles of Millennials more holistically? Considering all these factors together, Millennials seem to be at once liberal cosmopolitans, economic pragmatists, and political idealists. For many, the possibility of an increasingly diverse and inclusive country, modeled off of the cosmopolitan ideal of mutual enrichment among various groups, is simply taken for granted as a good thing.
However, this spirit of generosity remains constricted by a shadow of uncertainty regarding their economic future. Saddled by record-levels of college debt, persistent underemployment, lower prospects for economic growth relative to older generations, and slower rates of home buying, Millennials want the government to play a more active role in devising economic solutions so that they can get along with their family and professional pursuits with more confidence. Furthermore, their views on the possibilities of collective action through government seem more flexible and less constricted by the ethic of rugged individualism and anti-government antagonism than older generations’. The best example of this development concerns Americans' views on universal basic income, a policy that enjoys greater receptivity among younger adults.
Conservatism’s Last Stand
Conservatism’s relevance to the younger generations will therefore come down to its ability to meet the desire for a more robust national government that embarks on large-scale economic projects on behalf of the common interest. Suspended on the one hand with debt, narrowing economic prospects, and delayed family life, and imbued by record levels of education, cosmopolitan magnanimity, and political idealism on the other, Millennials and Z-ers seethe with the burden of overflowing energy, ambition, and moral imagination that lacks sufficient channels for realization. If left unaddressed, this energy, inflamed by economic uncertainty and greater awareness of racial injustice, will implode on itself, sowing further feelings of impatience, resentment, and cynicism towards the country’s promise. These are prime conditions for the continuation of the Democratic Party’s thin competitive advantage among younger voters.
If it is to avoid the fate of obsolescence, conservatism must meet these needs halfway with a coherent, positive, and forward-thinking economic program that addresses the distorted power dynamics of the modern world: one reminiscent of the Federalist program that established the country in its nascence. Sooner or later, the left will attempt to meet the needs of the day with a long-awaited 21st century sequel to the New Deal, and it will be insufficient to counterbalance this challenge with exaggerated appeals to individualism and political impotence in the name of “small government.”
What will the conservative alternative be?