The Commons: Trump’s Return: What are the Implications for the UK?
10 downing street/Gage Skidmore/CC BY-SA 2.0
In November 2024, America elected Donald Trump to the White House for his second, non-consecutive term as president. Concurrently, the Republican party have secured a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, giving them a government trifecta. The power this will hand Trump will undoubtedly have significant geopolitical ramifications around the world, especially in the UK. By examining how the UK government and opposition politicians have reacted to Trump’s ascension, experts are able to explore the potential plans that might be implemented in the UK to either capitalize on or mitigate the impact of Trump’s policies
Prior to the American election, there was some conflict within the governing Labour party in the UK as to how it would conduct itself when talking about the possibility of Trump’s reelection. Trump’s Republicans and Starmer’s Labour are ideologically opposed, and some Labour MPs felt it necessary to criticize Trump and his policies in the years leading up to the November election. Some members took this further, notably the current foreign secretary David Lammy, who said in an article in 2018 that Trump was a “neo-Nazi sympathizing sociopath”. The new Conservative opposition leader, Kemi Badenoch, questioned the prime minister on this in PMQs, but Starmer did not apologize for Lammy’s comments, instead insisting that after attending a dinner with Lammy and Trump, their meeting had been “very constructive.” It is worth pointing out that Starmer did start this session of PMQs by congratulating Trump on his victory and reaffirming his support for both democracy and the ‘special relationship’ between the US and UK. This perhaps could suggest a more friendly approach will be taken by the government towards Trump than Lammy’s comments may previously have suggested.
The UK cabinet are not the only ones welcoming Trump in Parliament, Kemi Badenoch also used PMQs to welcome Trump back to the presidency after his “impressive victory.” She also spoke warmly of him during her leadership campaign in October, describing him as someone who understands “that not everybody works in a high-flying corporate career or in a white-collar job.” Some parties have gone even further. Reform UK’s leader, Nigel Farage, has a personal friendship with Trump, and as such, was keen to applaud Trump on his election win, describing it on X as “the most incredible political comeback of our lifetime.” He has since urged the UK government to “roll out the red carpet” for Trump to improve US-UK relations.
However, not all UK parties have responded to the election so warmly. The Liberal Democrats’ leader Ed Davey has called Trump a “dangerous, destructive demagogue” and criticized him as someone who “actively undermines the rule of law, human rights, international trade, climate action and global security.”
Looking at the range of responses across British politics, it is clear there is not unity when it comes to the reaction to Trump’s election win. However, all parties will agree that Trump will have a substantial impact on the UK going forwards, and in no area more prevalent than the British economy. Trump ran on a campaign focused on the US economy, and as such, many of his promises and policies echoed this focus. The US is one of Britian’s biggest single export markets, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database, amounting to $71.9Bn in 2023 for UK exports of goods to the US which is around 15% of all UK goods exports. Consequently, Trump’s policy to levy 10% – 20% tariffs on all goods imports to the US would massively hit UK trade and cause businesses to either raise prices, spend time finding another market to sell to, or go bust. The impact of these tariffs could cause a loss of up to 0.9% of UK GDP according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) or an estimated $25.17Bn on 2023 GDP figures. The University of Sussex's Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) also estimates that it could cause a loss of $27.69Bn in UK exports. If the analysis is anywhere close to the truth, it will likely cause significant damage to the UK economy and manufacturing industry, ultimately costing the taxpayer, especially if the government decides to financially support affected businesses.
There has been some indication on how the government may plan to respond to Trump’s policies, and there seems to be two avenues that Starmer could currently take. The friendly attitude towards the incoming president could indicate that the UK might be looking for some kind of special arrangement with the US, potentially a reopening of free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, similar to the one the Conservative government under Boris Johnson tried to reach. If possible, an FTA could not only mitigate the economic impacts of Trump’s tariffs but could also be a potential positive to UK GDP growth. Closer ties to the US in this way are favored by the Conservative and Reform party. The other option Starmer has is moving back towards the EU which, when put together, amounts to $443.37Bn in goods exports in the year from June 2023 – June 2024, nearly five times higher than the USA. Starmer himself recently has been travelling to many European countries, talking of a “reset” of UK-EU relations, which could certainly pretense a move towards closer economic ties to the continent and a desire for UK economic independence from America in the future.
